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. 2022 Jul 4;1(3):pgac105. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac105

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© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Fig. 3. — The average sequence distinctiveness as a predictor of future changes in prevalence of a lineage. (a) Comparing the correlations of Distinctiveness of a lineage with its competitiveness in the geographic region (across 294 country/time data points). Distinctiveness of a lineage, relative to the average of all sequences that were collected from the same region during the same time, is predictive of future changes in prevalence. The ROC is shown for predicting an increase in prevalence of greater than 20 percentage points from an initial 28-d time window and a subsequent 28-d time window, starting 56 d in the future. (b) Distinctiveness calculated for only a subset of 66 positions involved in neutralizing antibody binding (orange) retains most of the predictive capacity. These positions were found to contribute disproportionately to the overall Distinctiveness, with ∼20-fold higher average Distinctiveness as compared with average positions.