Fig. 1. Peak daily hospital occupancy for a range of variant properties (number of beds per 100,000 population over the six-month simulation period).

The threshold (50% prevalence, see Supplementary Fig. 5) for Omicron’s dominance is presented by red lines (solid for expanded vaccination in panels A, C, E, G, and I, dashed for no future vaccination in panels B, D, F, H, and J). Expanded vaccination includes third doses for adults (6 months after the second dose) and vaccinating 5-11-year-olds. Rows represent Omicron’s potential severity (0 to 2) relative to Delta (1). Horizontal axes represent the range of Omicron’s potential infectivity (0 to 2) relative to Delta (1), left vertical axes represent Omicron’s potential immune-evading capacity (0 to 100%). The peak hospital occupancy per 100,000 people has been conservatively capped at 300 per 100,000, a value that ranges for European countries between 220 (Sweden) and 800 (Germany)¹⁶.