Table 5. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters for the economic surplus model.
| Kenya | Tanzania | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameters | TS (‘Million US$) | B/C | IRR (%) | TS (‘Million US$) | B/C | IRR (%) |
| Base values | 0.996 | 12.9 | 76.3 | 0.026 | 33.9 | 81.3 |
| Yield gain 50% | ||||||
| 0.5 | 1.878 | 24.3 | 99.5 | 0.048 | 62.9 | 103.2 |
| -0.5 | 0.171 | 2.2 | 28.8 | 0.005 | 5.9 | 39.2 |
| Cost reduction of 30% | ||||||
| 0.5 | 1.229 | 15.9 | 83.5 | 0.032 | 41.7 | 88.1 |
| -0.5 | 0.768 | 10.0 | 68.1 | 0.020 | 26.3 | 73.6 |
| Interest rate (8% Ke; 11% Tz) | ||||||
| 0.5 | 0.662 | 10.6 | 76.3 | 0.015 | 20.9 | 81.3 |
| -0.5 | 1.535 | 15.5 | 76.3 | 0.046 | 57.4 | 81.3 |
| Price supply elasticity 0.8 | ||||||
| 0.5 | 1.032 | 13.3 | 76.9 | 0.027 | 34.8 | 81.6 |
| -0.5 | 0.959 | 12.4 | 75.7 | 0.025 | 33.1 | 81.0 |
| Probability of success (70% Ke; 60% Tz)) | ||||||
| 100% | 1.467 | 19.0 | 89.9 | 0.045 | 58.4 | 100.3 |
| 35% (30%) | 0.480 | 6.2 | 54.4 | 0.013 | 16.6 | 61.1 |
| Max adoption level (85.9% Ke; 68.3% Tz) | ||||||
| 100% | 1.173 | 15.2 | 81.9 | 0.039 | 50.8 | 95.0 |
| 35% | 0.388 | 5.1 | 48.7 | 0.012 | 17.0 | 61.7 |
Note: TS is Total Surplus; B/C is the benefit over cost; IRR is the internal rate of return; Ke and Tz stand for Kenya and Tanzania respectively.