TABLE 2.
Effective reproduction number (Rt) during the 7 days before and after declaration of a state of emergency (SoE).
| Prefecture | Average Rt during the 7 days pre-SoE declaration | Average Rt during the 7 days post-SoE declaration | Absolute reduction in Rt | Relative reduction in Rt |
| Hokkaido* | 1.44 (1.38, 1.50) | 0.79 (0.74, 0.84) | 0.65 (0.58, 0.72) | 0.45 (0.41, 0.49) |
| Tokyo | 1.14 (1.09, 1.20) | 0.93 (0.88, 0.98) | 0.21 (0.14, 0.29) | 0.19 (0.13, 0.25) |
| Aichi | 1.20 (1.12, 1.27) | 0.81 (0.76, 0.86) | 0.39 (0.29, 0.49) | 0.33 (0.26, 0.39) |
| Kyoto | 1.27 (1.14, 1.40) | 1.04 (0.92, 1.16) | 0.23 (0.07, 0.42) | 0.18 (0.06, 0.31) |
| Osaka | 1.30 (1.25, 1.36) | 0.81 (0.77, 0.86) | 0.49 (0.42, 0.56) | 0.38 (0.33, 0.42) |
| Hyogo | 1.44 (1.35, 1.52) | 0.76 (0.70, 0.83) | 0.67 (0.57, 0.78) | 0.47 (0.41, 0.52) |
| Okayama | 0.48 (0.39, 0.56) | 0.54 (0.41, 0.64) | −0.06 (−0.21, 0.14) | −0.13 (−0.51, 0.26) |
| Hiroshima | 0.97 (0.90, 1.06) | 0.68 (0.59, 0.75) | 0.30 (0.16, 0.44) | 0.31 (0.18, 0.43) |
| Fukuoka | 1.09 (1.03, 1.14) | 0.58 (0.52, 0.63) | 0.51 (0.42, 0.60) | 0.47 (0.40, 0.53) |
| Okinawa | 1.12 (0.98, 1.24) | 1.16 (1.04, 1.26) | −0.04 (−0.20, 0.13) | −0.04 (−0.19, 0.11) |
Values in parentheses are bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals.
*The 7-day pre-SoE period in Hokkaido overlapped with a 10-day national holiday. Considering the 7-day period before the start of the holiday period instead (to eliminate the influence of holiday mobility on the Rt), the relative reduction in Rt was estimated to be 0.44 (0.38, 0.49).