Table 3.
The model training diagnostic results on the COVID-19 data performed by candidate models.
| Model | AIC | RMSE | MAPE | Ljung–Box Test | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | p-Value | ||||
| Confirmed cases | |||||
| SARIMA(1, 1, 1),(0, 1, 1, 7) | 1336.32 | 1931.46 | 7.26% | 0.14 | 0.71 |
| SARIMA(1, 1, 1),(0, 1, 2, 7) | 1336.41 | 2230.31 | 8.18% | 0.18 | 0.68 |
| SARIMA(1, 1, 1),(1, 1, 1, 7) | 1336.42 | 2281.49 | 8.31% | 0.15 | 0.7 |
| SARIMA(0, 1, 1),(1, 1, 1, 7) | 1338.13 | 3185.02 | 11.28% | 0.82 | 0.37 |
| SARIMA(1, 1, 2),(0, 1, 1, 7) | 1338.29 | 1999.01 | 7.44% | 0.14 | 0.71 |
| Deaths | |||||
| SARIMA(0, 1, 2),(1, 1, 2, 7) | 756.04 | 8.93 | 5.87% | 0.07 | 0.8 |
| SARIMA(0, 1, 2),(1, 1, 1, 7) | 754.13 | 8.90 | 5.82% | 0.05 | 0.82 |
| SARIMA(1, 1, 1),(1, 1, 2, 7) | 756.57 | 9.27 | 6.22% | 0.18 | 0.68 |
| SARIMA(1, 1, 1),(1, 1, 1, 7) | 754.30 | 8.99 | 5.87% | 0.1 | 0.76 |
| SARIMA(1, 1, 2),(1, 1, 2, 7) | 758.35 | 9.01 | 5.91% | 0.07 | 0.79 |
| Recovered cases | |||||
| SARIMA(0, 1, 1),(0, 1, 1, 7) | 1410.43 | 3686.54 | 13.51% | 0.14 | 0.71 |
| SARIMA(0, 1, 2),(0, 1, 1, 7) | 1411.39 | 3799.29 | 13.90% | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| SARIMA(1, 1, 1),(0, 1, 1, 7) | 1411.87 | 3750.77 | 13.74% | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| SARIMA(0, 1, 1),(1, 1, 1, 7) | 1412.22 | 3312.99 | 12.13% | 0.09 | 0.76 |
| SARIMA(0, 1, 1),(0, 1, 2, 7) | 1412.23 | 3343.85 | 12.25% | 0.10 | 0.75 |