Table 4.
Comparison of incremental cost-effectiveness results for basecase and sensitivity analysis scenarios. All outcomes are accumulated over a lifetime horizon and are for the total population of Greater London. Cost savings are shown as negative values
| Outcome | Mean | Lower 95% CI | Upper 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL NHS & PSS COSTS | |||
| Basecase | -£217,703,431 | -£437,582,367 | -£48,711,680 |
| SA1 | -£226,718,104 | -£475,058,585 | -£37,773,383 |
| SA2 | -£151,531,984 | -£333,771,635 | -£5,927,436 |
| SA3 | -£107,991,545 | -£255,351,553 | £16,979,751 |
| SA4 | -£393,625,146 | -£752,241,459 | -£138,109,426 |
| SA5 | -£79,789,371 | -£223,685,840 | £40,117,017 |
| QALYs | |||
| Basecase | 16,394 | 990 | 36,951 |
| SA1 | 17,377 | 814 | 40,812 |
| SA2 | 10,342 | -4,268 | 27,952 |
| SA3 | 8,026 | -2,991 | 21,643 |
| SA4 | 29,865 | 6,060 | 64,508 |
| SA5 | 5,997 | -5,139 | 17,036 |
| NET MONETARY BENEFIT (£20,000 per QALY THRESHOLD) | |||
| Basecase | £545,591,744 | £125,122,911 | £1,088,464,368 |
| SA1 | £574,259,454 | £125,502,640 | £1,199,502,240 |
| SA2 | £358,372,911 | £11,893,203 | £840,304,073 |
| SA3 | £268,518,915 | £3,417,367 | £602,086,044 |
| SA4 | £990,928,187 | £336,178,002 | £1,917,914,385 |
| SA5 | £199,739,062 | -£49,302,909 | £462,881,219 |
QALY Quality-adjusted life-year, NMB Net monetary benefit, SA Sensitivity analysis, SA1 No socioeconomic gradient in calorie reduction, SA2 No indirect metabolic effects, SA3 Half calorie reduction, SA4 3 year duration of effect, SA5 1 year return to baseline BMI