Table 3.

Estimates for progesterone effect and probability of neonatal mortality and long‐term morbidity used in decision analytic model estimating cost‐effectiveness of strategies to prevent spontaneous preterm delivery (sPTD) in asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy

Variable	Absolute numbers	Point estimate	Range*	Reference
Estimated reduction of sPTD < 33 + 0 weeks with VP treatment	—	0.300	0.050/0.550	14
Estimated reduction of sPTD at 33 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks with VP treatment	—	0.100	0.0167/0.1833	14
Stillbirth if:
PTD < 33 + 0 weeks	677/458 220	0.0014774	± 20%	MBR†
PTD at 33 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks	298/453 499	0.0006571	± 20%	MBR†
Delivery ≥ 37 + 0 weeks	669/436 509	0.0014326	± 20%	MBR†
NND < 7 days after birth if:
PTD < 33 + 0 weeks	214/4044	0.0529179	± 20%	MBR†
PTD at 33 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks	67/16 702	0.0040138	± 20%	MBR†
Delivery ≥ 37 + 0 weeks	158/435 840	0.0003625	± 20%	MBR†
NND at 7–27 days after birth if:
PTD < 33 + 0 weeks	82/4044	0.0202769	± 20%	MBR†
PTD at 33 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks	17/16 702	0.0010184	± 20%	MBR†
Delivery ≥ 37 + 0 weeks	57/435 840	0.0001307	± 20%	MBR
Long‐term morbidity (CP) if:
PTD < 33 + 0 weeks	41.36/1000	0.04136	± 20%	36‡
PTD at 33 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks	5.63/1000	0.00563	± 20%	36‡
Delivery ≥ 37 + 0 weeks	1.23/1000	0.00123	± 20%	36‡
Healthy newborn if:
PTD < 33 + 0 weeks	958.64/1000	0.9586	± 20%	36‡
PTD at 33 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks	994.37/1000	0.99437	± 20%	36‡
Delivery ≥ 37 + 0 weeks	998.77/1000	0.99877	± 20%	36‡

^*Range means values used in sensitivity analyses and is presented as min/max or as ± 20%.

^†Mortality rates from Swedish Medical Birth Register (MBR) for the years 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.

^‡Personal communication with K. Himmelmann ³⁶ .

CP, cerebral palsy; NND, neonatal death; PTD, preterm delivery; VP, vaginal progesterone.