Skip to main content
[Preprint]. 2022 Jul 18:2022.07.17.22277721. [Version 1] doi: 10.1101/2022.07.17.22277721

Figure 3. Incorporating temperature effect in the SEIR-V model.

Figure 3.

(A) Best fit to viral concentration data in wastewater from October 2 to December 16, 2020 (dashed grey line), and model prediction to January 25, 2021. Red dots are the measured viral load in wastewater and blue curve is the modeling result. (B) Comparison of the SEIR-V models with and without incorporating temperature effect. Top left: corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) values, the statistically significant AICc difference is 4.3; Top right: initial populations exposed to SARS-CoV-2; Bottom left: wastewater lead time difference at peak, both of the ΔTlead are 16 days; Bottom right: fold of difference between the number of predicted cases and clinically reported cases. Light blue represents the model without including temperate effect, while blue represents the model with temperature effect. Best fit parameters when incorporating temperature: λ = 9.13 × 10−8 day−1 person−1, α = 324g, and E(0) = 2092 people.