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. 2022 Jul 28;13:4375. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32096-4

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — a Rolling two-week average (prior two weeks) Reproduction number for Omicron and Delta in England as inferred from the mixed-effects Bayesian P-spline model. Estimates are shown with a central estimate (solid line) and 50% (dark shaded region) and 95% (light shaded region) credible intervals. Dashed line shows R = 1 the threshold for epidemic growth. b Modelled prevalence of Omicron in each region of England, estimated using a mixed-effects Bayesian P-spline model. Estimates are shown with a central estimate (solid line) and 50% (shaded region) credible intervals. 95% credible intervals and daily point estimates are included in Supplementary figure 1. c Modelled prevalence of Omicron for four age-groups in England, estimated using a mixed-effects Bayesian P-spline model. Estimates are shown with a central estimate (solid line) and 50% (shaded region) credible intervals. 95% credible intervals and daily point estimates are included in supplementary figure 4.