Table 2.
The incidence rates of breast cancer in China, Japan and South Korea by sex and age, during 1990–2019, and projected until 2034
| Incidence Rate (/105) | EAPC (95%CI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 (95%UI) | 2019 (95%UI) | 2020 (95%CI) | 2034 (95%CI) | 1990–2019 | 2020–2034 | |
| China | ||||||
| Both a | 8.54(7.07–10.11) | 18.32(14.5–22.93) | 18.21(15.28–21.75) | 18.54(13.64–25.09) | 2.8(2.7–2.91) * | 0.12(0.10–0.14) * |
| Female a | 17.07(14.02–20.3) | 35.61(28.07–44.81) | 35.38(29.58–42.36) | 35.47(25.89–48.48) | 2.66(2.57–2.76) * | 0.02(0–0.04) |
| All ages | 14.14(11.57–16.83) | 52.81(41.59–66.43) | 51.62(47.01–56.56) | 60.67(45.78–79.71) | 4.74(4.63–4.84) * | 1.17(1.12–1.23) * |
| 15–49 | 10.09(8.04–12.27) | 30.41(23.18–38.57) | 31.09(25.96–37.19) | 32.52(23.80–44.75) | 3.51(3.19–3.83) * | 0.43(0.28–0.59) * |
| 50–69 | 52.34(42.87–62.50) | 109.19(85.72–137.57) | 106.18(88.83–127.20) | 108.11(78.69–146.95) | 2.94(2.67–3.2) * | 0.18(0.11–0.24) * |
| 70 + | 44.14(38.16–51.21) | 102.62(83.91–125.27) | 104.75(87.39–125.38) | 110.89(80.71–151.48) | 3.14(3–3.27) * | 0.34(0.18–0.5) * |
| Male a | 0.13(0.1–0.15) | 0.69(0.53–0.88) | 0.74(0.57–0.95) | 0.93(0.41–2.01) | 8.37(7.32–9.43) * | 1.66(1.57–1.76) * |
| All ages | 0.09(0.07–0.11) | 0.98(0.74–1.25) | 1.03(0.84–1.27) | 1.76(0.79–3.74) | 11.03(9.89–12.16) * | 3.79(3.68–3.9) * |
| 15–49 | 0.04(0.03–0.04) | 0.29(0.21–0.37) | 0.26(0.19–0.34) | 0.21(0.09–0.47) | 9.54(8.38–10.69) * | -1.27(-1.51–1.03) * |
| 50–69 | 0.37(0.29–0.45) | 2.33(1.71–2.99) | 2.62(2.02–3.39) | 3.86(1.72–8.21) | 9.23(8.02–10.44) * | 2.98(2.81–3.15) * |
| 70 + | 0.74(0.6–0.9) | 3.57(2.8–4.46) | 3.87(2.94–5.06) | 5.27(2.36–11.54) | 7.39(6.56–8.21) * | 1.87(1.62–2.12) * |
| Japan | ||||||
| Both a | 19.07(17.92–20.29) | 31.02(24.85–38.16) | 30.59(28.12–33.30) | 29.37(23.67–36.00) | 1.94(1.71–2.18) * | -0.30(-0.32–0.28) * |
| Female a | 36.07(33.92–38.39) | 60.47(48.35–74.56) | 59.52(54.71–64.80) | 56.57(45.74–69.41) | 2.03(1.8–2.27) * | -0.38(-0.4–0.36) * |
| All ages | 49.2(46.21–52.37) | 113.34(90.5–138.86) | 114.00(107.91–120.42) | 121.56(99.72–147.39) | 3.17(2.94–3.41) * | 0.45(0.39–0.5) * |
| 15–49 | 36.91(33.14–41.06) | 57.11(44.16–73.46) | 55.75(50.67–61.05) | 49.16(39.36–60.79) | 1.53(1.33–1.74) * | -0.9(-1.03–0.76) * |
| 50–69 | 95.83(87.98–104.76) | 190.13(148.94–237.62) | 183.19(168.07–200.02) | 158.94(128.55–195.23) | 2.75(2.54–2.96) * | -1.05(-1.1–1.01) * |
| 70 + | 93.50(82.55–103.23) | 177.24(130.93–218.90) | 188.58(172.77–205.48) | 214.22(173.59–262.68) | 2.77(2.53–3.02) * | 0.91(0.83–0.99) * |
| Male a | 0.19(0.17–0.22) | 0.24(0.19–0.31) | 0.23(0.19–0.28) | 0.24(0.17–0.32) | 0.65(0.36–0.93) * | 0.02(0–0.03) * |
| All ages | 0.22(0.19–0.25) | 0.54(0.42–0.69) | 0.53(0.46–0.62) | 0.63(0.47–0.82) | 2.89(2.53–3.25) * | 1.17(1.15–1.19) * |
| 15–49 | 0.07(0.05–0.09) | 0.1(0.07–0.14) | 0.07(0.02–0.19) | 0.07(0.01–0.19) | 1.25(1.01–1.49) * | 0.01(-0.41–0.43) |
| 50–69 | 0.46(0.38–0.57) | 0.66(0.46–0.94) | 0.65(0.41–0.95) | 0.67(0.4–1.03) | 1.09(0.76–1.41) * | 0.25(-0.06–0.56) |
| 70 + | 1.36(1.13–1.67) | 1.74(1.31–2.28) | 1.72(1.2–2.33) | 1.79(1.16–2.59) | 0.66(0.37–0.95) * | 0.32(0.27–0.37) |
| South Korea | ||||||
| Both a | 9.5(8.9–10.19) | 23.79(19.29–28.65) | 23.75(21.25–26.54) | 23.07(16.67–31.25) | 3.42(3.07–3.78) * | -0.23(-0.25–0.20) * |
| Female a | 17.5(16.39–18.81) | 46.4(37.59–56.14) | 46.10(41.24–51.67) | 43.87(31.60–60.13) | 3.6(3.27–3.94) * | -0.36(-0.4–0.31) * |
| All ages | 15.61(14.61–16.78) | 76.66(61.92–92.55) | 78.29(71.90–85.240 | 92.76 (67.71–125.14) | 5.78(5.41–6.15) * | 1.21(1.13–1.3) * |
| 15–49 | 12.22(11.06–13.61) | 43.73(33.51–55.05) | 42.57(37.35–48.40) | 36.26(25.72–50.42) | 4.7(4.19–5.21) * | -1.19(-1.24–1.13) * |
| 50–69 | 49.38(44.63–54.80) | 131.88(102.87–166.01) | 132.04(117.30–148.47) | 134.68(97.33–184.95) | 3.56(3.26–3.87) * | 0.18(0.05–0.31) * |
| 70 + | 44.46(39.68–49.94) | 154.60(120.05–192.00) | 158.99(140.40–180.13) | 165.59(119.64–225.98) | 4.65(4.24–5.05) * | 0.27(0.25–0.29) * |
| Male a | 0.13(0.11–0.15) | 0.21(0.15–0.28) | 0.17(0.12–0.25) | 0.17(0.09–0.3) | 0.52(-0.04–1.09) | -0.07(-0.09–0.06) * |
| All ages | 0.07(0.06–0.09) | 0.29(0.2–0.39) | 0.26(0.19–0.35) | 0.41(0.23–0.65) | 3.86(3.39–4.32) * | 3.05(2.94–3.17) * |
| 15–49 | 0.04(0.03–0.05) | 0.08(0.05–0.12) | 0.04(0–0.16) | 0.04(0–0.23) | 2.08(1.66–2.51) * | 1.47(0.04–2.9) * |
| 50–69 | 0.27(0.2–0.37) | 0.47(0.28–0.74) | 0.42(0.16–0.81) | 0.46(0.15–0.94) | 0.79(0.24–1.34) * | 0.62(0.48–0.75) * |
| 70 + | 0.83(0.58–1.16) | 1.43(0.88–2.27) | 1.22(0.41–2.4) | 1.27(0.49–2.49) | 0.54(-0.11–1.19) * | -0.03(-0.3–0.25) |
EAPC estimated annual percentage change, 95% UI 95% uncertainty interval, 95% CI 95% confidence interval
a Age-standardized incidence rate
* Changes that are statistically significant