Figure 5. Predicted number of heatstroke cases in Tokyo for the period 2000–2100, using the MRI-ESM-2.0 scenario.

The epidemiological prediction of the number of heat-related ambulance transportations for every period of five years is shown, using the daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) derived from MRI-ESM-2.0. Predictions were made using the three statistical dose–response models. The 95% confidence intervals were calculated using the parametric bootstrapping method, and are represented by the shaded areas. The dotted and dashed line shows predictions with RCP2.6, the dotted line shows predictions with RCP4.5, and the solid line shows predictions with RCP8.5. The white circles represent observed data on heat-related ambulance transportations for the five-year period beginning in 2015.