Table 3.
Projected clinical outcomes, costs and the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in Kenya from a societal perspective
| Health outcomes | Economic outcomes | One-way sensitivity analysis of under-reporting in hospitalisations and deaths (factor of under-reporting) | |||||||
| *Averted SARS-CoV-2 infections per 100 000 Median (2.5–97.5th percentile) |
*Averted SARS-CoV-2 deaths Median (2.5–97.5th percentile) |
Total costs (US$ millions) Median (2.5–97.5th percentile) | Total DALYs (thousands) Median (2.5–97.5th percentile) |
†ICER, (US$ per DALY averted) Mean (95% CI) |
ICER (4) |
ICER (3) |
ICER (2) |
ICER (1) |
|
| Non-rapid vaccination strategy (administered within 1.5 years) | |||||||||
| No vaccination | – | – | 787 (740 to 882) |
247 (243 to 252) |
– | – | – | – | – |
| 30% coverage | 32 (24 to 38) |
8132 (7914 to 8373) |
614 (589 to 659) |
114 (110 to 118) |
−1343 (−1345 to −1341) Dominant |
−905 (−907 to −902) Dominant |
−175 (−178 to −173) Dominant |
1278 (1275 to 1280) |
5595 (5592 to 5598) |
| 50% coverage | 4 (3 to 5) |
810 (757 to 872) |
658 (636 to 699) |
101 (97 to 104) |
3291 (3287 to 3295) |
4908 (4903 to 4913) |
7598 (7592 to 7605) |
12 958 (12 949 to 12 967) |
28 878 (28 860 to 28 896) |
| 70% coverage | 2 (1 to 3) |
282 (251 to 317) |
763 (742 to 801) |
96 (92 to 100) |
22 623 (22 602 to 22 645) |
29 075 (29 048 to 29 101) |
39 791 39 756 to 39 827) |
61 093 (61 040 to 61 146) |
123 967 (123 863 to 124 072) |
| Rapid vaccination strategy (administered within 6 months) | |||||||||
| No vaccination | – | – | 787 (740 to 882) |
247 (243 to 252) |
– | – | – | – | – |
| 30% coverage | 39 (29 to 48) |
9433 (9197 to 9711) |
545 (524 to 582) |
93 (89 to 96) |
−1,607 (−1609 to −1604) Dominant |
−1,230 (−1232 to −1227) Dominant |
−603 (−605 to −600) Dominant |
646 (644 to 649) |
4357 (4354 to 4360) |
| 50% coverage | 1 (0.5 to 2) |
250 (201 to 296) |
620 (599 to 655) |
88 (85 to 92) |
18 257 (18 226 to 18 287) |
23 582 (23 543 to 23 620) |
32 440 (32 389 to.32 491) |
50 096 (50 020 to 50 173) |
102 582 (102 430 to 102 733) |
| 70% coverage | 0.5 (−0.05 to 1) |
161 (106 to 208) |
731 (713 to 765) |
86 (82 to 89) |
44 250 (44 126 to 44 374) |
56 074 (55 919 to 56 230) |
75 768 (75 560 to 75 976) |
115 100 (114 788 to 115 413) |
232 667 (232 036 to 233 298) |
ICER (4), ICER (3), ICER (2) and ICER (1)= under-reporting factors for hospitalisation and deaths used were 4, 3, 2 and 1, respectively. Total averted infections=rounded off to the nearest 100 000; Total Cost=rounded off to the nearest 1 000 000; Total DALY rounded off to the nearest 1000; Total deaths and ICERs=rounded off to the nearest whole number.
*Averted SARS-Cov-2 infections and deaths = This is the incremental averted infections/deaths compared with the vaccination strategy that appears in the row above.
†ICER=Baseline ICER used in analysis where under-reporting in hospitalisations and deaths is adjusted with a factor of 5.
DALYs, disability-adjusted life-years; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.