Table 2.
Model parameters, definitions and indicator as to whether they were fitted or fixed. Sources for fixed values are cited in the main text.
| parameter symbol | definition | fitted or fixed |
|---|---|---|
| β | minimum transmission rate within the season | fitted |
| qi | seasonal transmission spline parameters () | fitted |
| S(t=0)/Nt=0 | initial susceptible fraction | fitted |
| E(t=0)/Nt=0 | initial exposed fraction | fitted |
| I(t=0)/Nt=0 | initial infected fraction | fitted |
| ψ | importation rate | fitted |
| ρ | reporting fraction | fitted |
| σ | gamma white-noise intensity | fitted |
| τ | negative binomial dispersion | fitted |
| 1/η | incubation period | fixed (8 days) |
| 1/γ | infectious period | fixed (5 days) |
| pt | vaccination probability | fixed (0.7) |
| mut | per capita birth rate | fixed |
| Nt | population size | fixed |