Comparison 4. Secondary outcome: lung cancer incidence.

Outcome or subgroup title	No. of studies	No. of participants	Statistical method	Effect size
4.1 Lung cancer incidence ‐ by different time points	10		Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	Subtotals only
4.1.1 at baseline	6	79900	Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	4.98 [2.01, 12.35]
4.1.2 at year 1	3	73345	Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	2.12 [1.35, 3.31]
4.1.3 at year 2	2	57556	Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	1.88 [1.51, 2.32]
4.1.4 at year 3	1	4104	Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	1.71 [0.68, 4.35]
4.1.5 at year 4	1	4104	Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	2.67 [1.05, 6.80]
4.1.6 5 to 7 years	2	57506	Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	1.13 [1.04, 1.23]
4.1.7 > 7 years	8	88528	Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	1.17 [1.02, 1.33]
4.2 Lung cancer incidence ‐ by control group at ≥ 10 years	6	82110	Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	1.15 [0.99, 1.34]
4.2.1 usual care	5	28656	Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	1.21 [0.99, 1.48]
4.2.2 CXR	1	53454	Risk Ratio (M‐H, Random, 95% CI)	1.01 [0.95, 1.08]
4.3 Overdiagnosis at ≥ 10 years	6		Risk Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI)	Subtotals only
4.3.1 usual care	5	28656	Risk Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI)	0.18 [‐0.00, 0.36]
4.3.2 CXR	1	53454	Risk Difference (IV, Random, 95% CI)	0.01 [‐0.05, 0.07]