Table 4:

Policy simulations by product type.

Simulation	Product	Choice share
		Non-switchers	Switchers	Total	% change from baseline
Baseline	Cigarette	1.00	0.56	0.86	-
	Pod e-cigarette	0.00	0.28	0.09	-
	Disposable e-cigarette	0.00	0.16	0.05	-
Menthol cigarette ban	Cigarette	1.00	0.55	0.85	–0.5%
	Pod e-cigarette	0.00	0.28	0.09	2.7%
	Disposable e-cigarette	0.00	0.17	0.05	2.8%
Cigarette taxes	Cigarette	1.00	0.53	0.85	–1.0%
	Pod e-cigarette	0.00	0.28	0.09	3.1%
	Disposable e-cigarette	0.00	0.18	0.06	11.5%

Simulation – the scenario being simulated: Baseline is the models’ prediction of the current “state-of-the-world”; Menthol cigarette ban is the predicted effect of banning menthol in cigarettes; Cigarette taxes is the predicted effect of increasing the relative prices of cigarettes by 50%. Own-price elasticity of choice for cigarettes: −0.02. Cross-price elasticity of choice for pod e-cigarettes: 0.06; cross-price elasticity of choice for disposable e-cigarettes: 0.23. Baseline simulations are matched to reported real-world product use: 9% of respondents reported pod e-cigarette use and 5% of respondents reported disposable e-cigarette use. Product is the tobacco product chosen. Choice shares are the proportion of the total number of choices made. % change from baseline is the difference between the baseline estimates and the estimated choices: by menthol cigarette ban and with higher cigarette taxes.