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. 2022 May 25;13(2):681–721. doi: 10.3982/QE1618

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Published 2022. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

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Dynamics in the SIRD model. Note: The paths shown are aggregates for the total population. The observed reproduction rate is used in the model simulations and to back out the paths in the bottom three panels. The model‐implied paths are generated varying the number of contacts in line with the residential mobility measure from Google (2020) and school closures but keeping the probability of contagion given contacts unchanged from its baseline value. The paths in the top panel are daily. All other panels show monthly averages of daily series.