TABLE 1.

Bias and coverage for nowcasts. Results for pairs of days T − 2 and T − 3, and T − 4 and T − 5, and T − 6 and T − 7 are averaged, as are results for the seven regions. Bias is mean difference between estimated and true number of deaths. Coverage is percentage of 95% credible intervals (CIs) that contain true number of deaths

		Bias for day T minus					Coverage for day T minus
Area	Age	1	2/3	4/5	6/7	mean${}^{\mathrm{a}}$	1	2/3	4/5	6/7	low${}^{\mathrm{b}}$
England	0–44	−0.09	0.01	−0.04	0.05	2.9	96	98	96	98	54.1
	45–54	−0.54	−0.54	−0.53	−0.25	6.8	98	96	95	97	30.9
	55–64	−0.38	−0.11	−0.19	−0.28	18.4	96	96	94	95	18.1
	65–74	−1.21	1.16	0.18	0.44	41.3	91	91	93	94	9.4
	≥75	1.37	−0.75	−0.31	−0.74	166.0	93	92	88	88	1.0
Regions	0–44	0.07	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.4	98	98	98	98	90.1
	45–54	−0.03	−0.07	−0.07	−0.04	1.0	98	98	98	99	77.0
	55–64	0.00	0.01	−0.02	−0.04	2.6	99	99	98	98	57.8
	65–74	−0.01	0.22	0.04	0.06	5.9	96	98	97	99	40.7
	≥75	0.28	−0.06	−0.02	−0.16	23.7	97	96	96	96	18.5

${}^{\mathrm{a}}$The ‘mean’ column contains the average true number of deaths in the age group.

${}^{\mathrm{b}}$The ‘low’ column contains the percentage of days on which the true number of deaths was zero or one.