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. 2022 Aug 5;309:115248. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.115248

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© 2022 The Author(s)

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Fig. A1 — Effect (left), placebo (middle) and post-intervention effect size (right) plots for first-dose vaccinations among 18-29-year-olds (the untreated age group). The left panel shows the share of first-dose vaccinations by week in Uppsala (black) and synthetic Uppsala (dashed). The middle panel shows effects estimated by assessing the vaccination share gaps between Uppsala and its synthetic counterpart (black) and equivalently defined placebo gaps in all 20 control regions (gray). The right panel shows the ratio between post-intervention root mean squared error (RMSE) to the pre-intervention RMSE from the synthetic control analysis in Uppsala and all other regions. The specification in this analysis differs from our main analysis in that we standardize the effect sizes in the right panel by the pre-intervention RMSE to account for the fact that the pre-intervention fit can vary across regions, as suggested by Abadie et al. (2010). This was not possible nor necessary in our main analysis due to the limited variation in the outcome before vaccinations were introduced among 16-17-year-olds.