Table 1.
Baseline value.
| Variable | Baseline value | Range | Distribution | References | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | Maximum | |||||
| Weilbull OS survival model in Nivolumab plus ipilimumab | Shape = 1.19536, scale = 25.48855 | - | - | Weilbull | Model fitting | |
| Log-normal PFS survival model in Nivolumab plus ipilimumab | Meanlog = 1.88660, sdlog = 1.23141 | - | - | log-normal | Model fitting | |
| Log-logistic OS survival model in chemotherapy | Shape = 1.7027, scale = 14.1088 | - | - | log-logistic | Model fitting | |
| Log-logistic PFS survival model in chemotherapy | Shape = 2.185, scale = 7.392 | - | - | log-logistic | Model fitting | |
| Risk for main adverse events | ||||||
| Nivolumab plus ipilimumab group | ||||||
| Diarrhea | 0.003 | 0.0024 | 0.0036 | Beta | Checkmate 743 | |
| Increased lipase | 0.005 | 0.004 | 0.006 | Beta | Checkmate 743 | |
| Increased amylase | 0.003 | 0.0024 | 0.0036 | Beta | Checkmate 743 | |
| Chemotherapy | ||||||
| Anemia | 0.36 | 0.288 | 0.432 | Beta | Checkmate 743 | |
| Nausea | 0.36 | 0.288 | 0.432 | Beta | Checkmate 743 | |
| Decreased appetite | 0.18 | 0.144 | 0.216 | Beta | Checkmate 743 | |
| Health utility scores | ||||||
| Utility of PFS | 0.65 | 0.52 | 0.78 | Beta | (24) | |
| Utility of PD | 0.47 | 0.376 | 0.564 | Beta | (24) | |
| Cost, $/per cycle | ||||||
| Cisplatin | 48.6108 | 38.88864 | 58.33296 | 9.72216 | Gamma | 2022 Payment allowance limits for Medicare |
| Carboplatin | 55.80288 | 44.6423 | 66.963456 | 11.160576 | Gamma | 2022 Payment allowance limits for Medicare |
| Pemetrexed | 12,832.512 | 10,266.01 | 15,399.0144 | 2,566.5024 | Gamma | 2022 Payment allowance limits for Medicare |
| Nivolumab | 18,419.94 | 14,735.95 | 22,103.928 | 3,683.988 | Gamma | 2022 Payment allowance limits for Medicare |
| Ipilimumab | 11,258.31 | 9,006.648 | 13,509.972 | 2,251.662 | Gamma | 2022 Payment allowance limits for Medicare |
| Laboratory_test | 157.5 | 126 | 189 | 31.5 | Gamma | |
| Follow-up | 59.2 | 47.36 | 71.04 | 11.84 | Gamma | |
| Administration | 69.81 | 55.848 | 83.772 | 13.962 | Gamma | |
| Best supportive care | 117.1 | 93.68 | 140.52 | 23.42 | Gamma | (25) |
| Pembrolizumab | 21,479.6 | 17,183.68 | 25,775.52 | 4,295.92 | Gamma | 2022 Payment allowance limits for Medicare |
| Vinorelbine | 227.2756 | 181.8205 | 272.73072 | 45.45512 | Gamma | 2022 Payment allowance limits for Medicare |
| Expenditures on main AEs, $ | ||||||
| Diarrhea | 303 | 242 | 363 | Gamma | (26) | |
| Increased lipase | 2,933 | 2,346.4 | 3,519.6 | 586.6 | Gamma | (27) |
| Increased amylase | 2,933 | 2,346.4 | 3,519.6 | 586.6 | Gamma | (27) |
| Anemia | 493.04 | 246.52 | 739.56 | 98.608 | Gamma | (28) |
| Nausea | 218.27 | 174.616 | 261.924 | 43.654 | Gamma | (29) |
| Decreased appetite | 115.4 | 103.8 | 126.9 | 23.08 | Gamma | (30) |
| Disutility due to AEs | ||||||
| Diarrhea | −0.047 | −0.0564 | −0.0376 | −0.0094 | Beta | (31) |
| Increased lipase | −0.47 | −0.564 | −0.376 | −0.094 | Beta | (27) |
| Increased amylase | −0.47 | −0.564 | −0.376 | −0.094 | Beta | (27) |
| Anemia | −0.09 | −0.108 | −0.072 | −0.018 | Beta | (29) |
| Nausea | −0.048 | −0.0576 | −0.0384 | −0.0096 | Beta | (29) |
| Decreased appetite | −0.038 | −0.0456 | −0.0304 | −0.0076 | Beta | (31) |
| Risk for Subsequent therapy | ||||||
| Nivolumab plus ipilimumab group | ||||||
| Immunotherapy | 0.033 | 0.0264 | 0.0396 | 0.0066 | Beta | Checkmate 743 |
| Chemotherapy | 0.432 | 0.3456 | 0.5184 | 0.0864 | Beta | Checkmate 743 |
| Chemotherapy | ||||||
| Immunotherapy | 0.202 | 0.1616 | 0.2424 | 0.0404 | Beta | Checkmate 743 |
| Chemotherapy | 0.315 | 0.252 | 0.378 | 0.063 | Beta | Checkmate 743 |