Table 2.

Model choice results.

	Tol. δ	Scenario SN1	Scenario SN2	Scenario SN3	Scenario SN4
Marginal density P	0.25	0.893	0.970	0.868	0.798
	1.00	0.858	0.936	0.877	0.584
	2.50	0.869	0.845	0.873	0.441
Posterior probability	0.25	0.019	0.633	0.020	0.328
	1.00	0.013	0.588	0.014	0.385
	2.50	0.014	0.575	0.016	0.395
Bayes factor	0.25	0.019	1.727	0.021	0.487
	1.00	0.013	1.426	0.015	0.626
	2.50	0.014	1.351	0.016	0.653
Probability of recovery	0.25	0.442	0.440	0.442	0.517
	1.00	0.540	0.493	0.509	0.522
	2.50	0.466	0.468	0.490	0.523

Marginal densities, posterior probabilities, Bayes factors (Model i against the others) and probability of recovery for each simulated scenario with a tolerance level of 1% (0.25% and 2.5% in italic).