Table 3.
Model | Validation year | Training | Test | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | Sensitivity | Specificity | AUC * | Accuracy | Sensitivity | Specificity | AUC * | ||
DT | 2017 | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.50 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.82 | 0.22 | 0.53 |
2018 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.86 | 0.68 | 0.81 | 0.36 | 0.59 | |
2019 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.68 | |
RF | 2017 | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.79 | 0.33 | 0.60 |
2018 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.32 | 0.63 | |
2019 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.85 | 0.60 | 0.77 | |
LR | 2017 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.78 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.78 | 0.61 |
2018 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.73 | 0.45 | 0.62 | |
2019 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.74 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.90 | 0.84 | |
SVM | 2017 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.65 | 0.74 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
2018 | 0.94 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.27 | 0.56 | |
2019 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.97 | 0.85 | 0.68 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.68 | |
MLP | 2017 | 0.82 | 0.95 | 0.38 | 0.77 | 0.74 | 0.88 | 0.22 | 0.65 |
2018 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.26 | 0.93 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 0.65 | |
2019 | 0.79 | 0.99 | 0.23 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.93 | 0.40 | 0.82 |
AUC, Area Under Receiver Operative Curve.