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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Aug 10.
Published in final edited form as: Addiction. 2020 Oct 8;116(5):1196–1211. doi: 10.1111/add.15269

Table 2.

Validation of England SimSmoke current smoking prevalence (%) predictions against three national surveysa by age and gender, 2000–2012.

Age Source 2000 2007 2012 Percent change
2000–2007 (%)		 Percent change
2007–2012 (%)		 Percent change
2000–2012 (%)
Males
16+ SimSmoke 28.6 23.5 21.8 −17.9 −4.7 −23.7
OPN 28.6 22.0 22.0 −23.1 −8.2 −23.1
STS 25.6 22.1 −8.4
95% CI (21.3, 22.9)
18+ SimSmoke 28.8 23.7 22.0 −17.6 −4.7 −23.5
APS 21.8
95% CI (21.4, 22.1)
16–24 SimSmoke 33.1 26.7 24.8 −19.1 −4.4 −24.9
OPN 33.6 28.2 22.7 −16.1 −17.7 −32.4
STS 31.8 24.3 −14.3
95% CI (22.3, 26.3)
18–24 SimSmoke 35.7 29.2 27.0 −18.4 −4.6 −24.4
APS 27.4
95% CI (26.2, 28.6)
25–34 SimSmoke 38.1 30.2 28.5 −20.8 −3.8 −25.3
APS age 28.8
95% CI (27.8, 29.8)
35–44 SimSmoke 32.0 27.0 26.3 −15.5 −2.6 −17.8
APS age 25.8
95% CI (24.9, 26.6)
25–44 SimSmoke 35.1 29.1 27.4 −17.2 −3.7 −21.9
STS 30.4 29.0 −2.4
95% CI (27.5, 30.5)
35–59 SimSmoke 29.4 25.4 23.6 −13.7 −4.5 −19.7
OPN 29.5 23.6 23.4 −20.0 −5.6 −20.8
45–64 SimSmoke 26.4 22.7 21.5 −13.8 −3.8 −18.3
STS 24.9 20.7 −11.2
95% CI (19.3, 22.1)
45–54 SimSmoke 28.2 22.4 22.1 −20.5 −1.2 −21.5
APS 22.4
95% CI (21.6, 23.1) 95% CI
55–64 SimSmoke 24.1 21.3 20.8 −11.6 −2.2 −13.5
APS 18.7
95% CI (18.0, 19.5)
45–64 SimSmoke 26.4 22.7 21.5 −13.8 −3.8 −18.3
STS 24.9 20.7 −11.2
95% CI (19.3, 22.1)
60+ SimSmoke 16.6 13.8 13.0 −17.2 −3.1 −21.8
OPN 15.9 12.3 13.0 −22.6 1.6 −18.2
65+ SimSmoke 14.5 10.7 10.3 −26.4 −4.0 −29.2
STS 10.9 9.3 −7.3
95% CI (7.9, 10.6)
APS 10.5
95% CI (10.0, 11.0)
Females
16+ SimSmoke 24.9 19.9 18.1 −20.1 −5.8 −27.2
OPN 25.0 19.2 17.9 −23.2 −0.5 −28.4
STS 22.8 18.1 −15.0
95% CI (17.3, 18.8)
18+ SimSmoke 24.9 19.9 18.2 −19.9 −5.8 −27.0
APS 17.0
95% CI (16.7, 17.3)
16–24 SimSmoke 31.5 25.6 23.6 −18.6 −4.8 −25.0
OPN 32.2 26.2 21.7 −18.6 −7.3 −32.6
STS 33.8 22.2 −19.8
95% CI (20.2, 24.3)
18–24 SimSmoke 33.1 27.4 25.2 −17.3 −4.9 −23.8
APS 23.0
95% CI (22.0, 24.1)
25–34 SimSmoke 31.8 25.9 24.6 −18.5 −3.6 −22.7
APS 20.7
95% CI (19.9, 21.5)
35–44 SimSmoke 28.2 23.5 21.5 −16.6 −5.4 −24.0
APS 19.0
95% CI (18.3, 19.7)
25–44 SimSmoke 30.0 24.6 23.0 −18.1 −4.4 −23.5
STS 26.1 20.6 −15.7
95% CI (19.2, 21.9)
35–59 SimSmoke 26.1 21.5 19.7 −17.7 −5.3 −24.5
OPN 26.4 21.2 19.4 −20.0 −4.5 −26.6
45–54 SimSmoke 24.9 20.5 19.1 −17.4 −4.7 −23.1
APS 18.7
95% CI (18.0, 19.3)
55–64 SimSmoke 22.3 17.2 15.7 −22.9 −6.5 −29.7
APS 16.4
95% CI (15.8, 17.1)
45–64 SimSmoke 23.7 18.9 17.6 −20.2 −5.2 −25.9
STS 21.8 18.3 −10.8
95% CI (17.0, 19.6)
60+ SimSmoke 15.8 11.7 10.2 −26.4 −8.1 −35.5
OPN 15.2 11.3 11.7 −25.7 12.4 −23.0
65+ SimSmoke 14.3 10.2 8.9 −28.8 −9.0 −37.8
STS 11.3 10.9 −12.1
95% CI (9.6, 12.2)
APS 9.0
95% CI (8.5, 9.4)

OPN = Opinion and Lifestyle Survey conducted by UK Office of National Statistics, which defines smokers as those who smoke at all nowadays; STS = Smoking Toolkit Study conducted by the British Market Research Bureau, which defines smokers as those who smoke cigarettes every day or not every day; APS = Annual Population Survey conducted by UK Office of National Statistics, which defines smokers as those who smoke at all nowadays.

a

Data from surveys are compared to England SimSmoke by matching age groups. For unmatched age groups (e.g. age 16+ and age 18+), the SimSmoke projections for two age groups are provided.