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. 2022 Aug 2:M22-0803. doi: 10.7326/M22-0803

Figure 1. Average weekly deaths per 100 000 population by state, 30 May 2021 through 4 June 2022.

Figure 1. Average weekly deaths per 100 000 population by state, 30 May 2021 through 4 June 2022. Segments marked in black show average mortality rates seen 3 weeks after a state meets the CDC criteria for high COVID-19 community level, whereas gray segments show 3-week lagged mortality rates after periods meeting criteria for low or medium COVID-19 community level. The dotted horizontal line marks a reference level of 0.9 deaths per 100 000 population per week (7). Solid circles mark the lagged mortality after the first week of a distinct episode of high community levels, whereas open circles mark the final week of a high episode. The choice of a 3-week lag for pairing observed mortality to weeks of high COVID-19 community levels follows the design of the CDC metrics based on predictive accuracy for mortality and other severe outcomes at a 3-week lag and is consistent with an approximate duration of 3 weeks between diagnosis and death. CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. * Maryland did not report case data from 5 December through 19 December 2021, and values in the New York Times data set were filled by repeating the 4 December value over the entire missing interval. For our purposes, we replaced those repeated values in our analytic data set with backfilled Maryland case data for 5 December to 19 December, obtained directly from the Maryland Department of Health, available at https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/datasets/mdcovid19-casesper100kpopulationstatewide/explore.

Segments marked in black show average mortality rates seen 3 weeks after a state meets the CDC criteria for high COVID-19 community level, whereas gray segments show 3-week lagged mortality rates after periods meeting criteria for low or medium COVID-19 community level. The dotted horizontal line marks a reference level of 0.9 deaths per 100 000 population per week (7). Solid circles mark the lagged mortality after the first week of a distinct episode of high community levels, whereas open circles mark the final week of a high episode. The choice of a 3-week lag for pairing observed mortality to weeks of high COVID-19 community levels follows the design of the CDC metrics based on predictive accuracy for mortality and other severe outcomes at a 3-week lag and is consistent with an approximate duration of 3 weeks between diagnosis and death. CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. * Maryland did not report case data from 5 December through 19 December 2021, and values in the New York Times data set were filled by repeating the 4 December value over the entire missing interval. For our purposes, we replaced those repeated values in our analytic data set with backfilled Maryland case data for 5 December to 19 December, obtained directly from the Maryland Department of Health, available at https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/datasets/mdcovid19-casesper100kpopulationstatewide/explore.