Table 4.
Comparison of model fit statistics across models, using additional pandemic-time datasets.
| Confirmed Cases | Deaths | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIC | BIC | AIC | BIC | |
| Adjusting for pandemic-time, in-person mobility changes (LEHD and SafeGraph data; N = 27,300 county-time periods; 2730 counties) | ||||
| M1: Baseline (only spatial exposure + local work mobility + controls) | 342934.4 | 343098.7 | 141319.6 | 141483.8 |
| M2: Pandemic-time phone mobility network exposures (SafeGraph) | 342593.9 | 342766.4 | 140942.0 | 141114.5 |
| M3: Pre-pandemic commuting network exposure (LEHD) | 342592.6 | 342765.1 | 140965.2 | 141137.7 |
| M4: Commuting networks (pandemic adjusted + pre-pandemic) (SafeGraph + LEHD) | 342582.0 | 342762.7 | 140957.0 | 141137.7 |
| Adjusting for pandemic-time online social ties (LEHD and Facebook SCI Data; 62,445 county-time periods; 2715 counties) | ||||
| M1: Baseline (only spatial exposure + local work mobility + controls) | 685518.9 | 685817.3 | 250229.4 | 250527.8 |
| M2: Pre-pandemic commuting network exposures (LEHD) | 683300.3 | 683607.7 | 249442.9 | 249750.3 |
| M3: Social media ties network (Facebook SCI) | 685336.1 | 685643.5 | 250226.5 | 250533.9 |
| M4: Social media ties + Pre-pandemic commuting networks (Facebook SCI + LEHD) | 683295.7 | 683612.2 | 249392.1 | 249708.5 |
Fit statistics are based on multilevel mixed effects negative binomial regression models; all models included the baseline measures: spatial COVID-19 exposure, local work mobility, and all sociodemographic county-level covariates; SE clustered by state.