Number of actual ongoing, started, and ended trials per health domain vs. the forecasted values.
| Health domain | Study status | 2020 Q1 N (% vs. forecast) |
2020 Q2 N (% vs. forecast) |
2020 Q3 N (% vs. forecast) |
2020 Q4 N (% vs. forecast) |
Selected ETS models |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AICca | BICb | ||||||
| All studies | ongoing | 78,311 (−2.4%) | 78,846 (−2.8%) | 79,662 (−1.9%) | 80,113 (−1.6%) | 780 | 794 |
| started | 6999 (−13.6%) | 6484 (−10.5%) | 7915 (10.2%) | 8744 (21.4%) | 734 | 748 | |
| ended | 6683 (7.7%) | 6541 (−5.4%) | 6999 (1.5%) | 13,463 (41.3%) | 734 | 747 | |
| Bacterial Infections and Mycoses | ongoing | 2603 (−2.6%) | 2731 (1.6%) | 2794 (3.5%) | 2791 (2.9%) | 534 | 543 |
| started | 301 (4.6%) | 387 (48.4%) | 328 (28.4%) | 328 (27.0%) | 493 | 506 | |
| ended | 262 (18.0%) | 291 (15.5%) | 258 (7.7%) | 523 (67.2%) | 506 | 519 | |
| Behavior and Behavior Mechanisms | ongoing | 2286 (−1.6%) | 2306 (−1.9%) | 2324 (−2.3%) | 2354 (−2.2%) | 498 | 507 |
| started | 248 (−15.1%) | 221 (−12.5%) | 251 (−5.5%) | 269 (10.2%) | 510 | 523 | |
| ended | 209 (1.2%) | 217 (−13.5%) | 218 (−10.2%) | 393 (24.6%) | 480 | 493 | |
| Cardiovascular Diseases | ongoing | 10,011 (−4.0%) | 9977 (−4.6%) | 10,061 (−4.0%) | 10,145 (−3.5%) | 632 | 640 |
| started | 738 (−18.4%) | 622 (−20.5%) | 828 (5.8%) | 966 (26.2%) | 586 | 600 | |
| ended | 795 (10.7%) | 692 (−5.7%) | 732 (2.0%) | 1562 (32.8%) | 573 | 586 | |
| Congenital, Hereditary, and Neonatal Diseases and Abnormalities | ongoing | 4188 (−2.9%) | 4246 (−2.8%) | 4286 (−3.1%) | 4269 (−4.7%) | 552 | 561 |
| started | 327 (−10.3%) | 298 (−10.2%) | 341 (1.4%) | 402 (24.7%) | 514 | 527 | |
| ended | 301 (22.2%) | 261 (−4.3%) | 295 (4.8%) | 668 (71.6%) | 497 | 510 | |
| Digestive System Diseases | ongoing | 7630 (−3.0%) | 7638 (−4.4%) | 7680 (−4.1%) | 7753 (−4.2%) | 584 | 598 |
| started | 509 (−23.4%) | 463 (−23.5%) | 628 (5.0%) | 677 (9.1%) | 538 | 552 | |
| ended | 511 (7.6%) | 499 (0.9%) | 562 (13.5%) | 1108 (48.6%) | 549 | 563 | |
| Endocrine System Diseases | ongoing | 4225 (−3.4%) | 4145 (−5.6%) | 4139 (−6.0%) | 4171 (−5.6%) | 562 | 571 |
| started | 347 (−12.4%) | 243 (−31.3%) | 336 (−3.5%) | 421 (23.7%) | 524 | 538 | |
| ended | 350 (5.6%) | 339 (−1.1%) | 354 (1.9%) | 667 (51.5%) | 531 | 545 | |
| Female Urogenital Diseases and Pregnancy Complications | ongoing | 5880 (−4.9%) | 5863 (−6.1%) | 5934 (−5.8%) | 5972 (−6.1%) | 563 | 571 |
| started | 451 (−17.8%) | 385 (−23.9%) | 555 (8.9%) | 592 (20.4%) | 520 | 533 | |
| ended | 497 (16.6%) | 453 (−7.0%) | 453 (−4.3%) | 894 (39.8%) | 515 | 528 | |
| Hemic and Lymphatic Diseases | ongoing | 5391 (−1.6%) | 5420 (−2.0%) | 5478 (−1.9%) | 5545 (−1.6%) | 547 | 561 |
| started | 279 (−13.6%) | 282 (−13.4%) | 382 (16.4%) | 438 (32.4%) | 509 | 518 | |
| ended | 257 (−0.5%) | 292 (1.2%) | 295 (14.4%) | 645 (86.4%) | 524 | 538 | |
| Immune System Diseases | ongoing | 6897 (−2.1%) | 6862 (−3.3%) | 6948 (−2.8%) | 7074 (−1.7%) | 593 | 602 |
| started | 460 (−15.3%) | 356 (−29.1%) | 527 (4.3%) | 648 (25.3%) | 542 | 555 | |
| ended | 412 (−6.6%) | 432 (−11.2%) | 441 (−6.8%) | 876 (52.9%) | 570 | 584 | |
| Male Urogenital Diseases | ongoing | 4931 (−4.4%) | 4898 (−5.8%) | 4967 (−5.3%) | 5025 (−5.0%) | 558 | 566 |
| started | 332 (−23.9%) | 256 (−36.1%) | 419 (2.8%) | 459 (15.0%) | 510 | 524 | |
| ended | 379 (13.3%) | 323 (−14.0%) | 332 (−6.9%) | 666 (44.6%) | 519 | 532 | |
| Mental Disorders | ongoing | 5853 (−2.9%) | 5844 (−4.0%) | 5898 (−4.1%) | 6033 (−2.9%) | 569 | 578 |
| started | 576 (−9.5%) | 398 (−29.2%) | 591 (−2.0%) | 736 (35.2%) | 553 | 566 | |
| ended | 494 (3.0%) | 457 (−18.3%) | 527 (−9.2%) | 977 (39.3%) | 544 | 557 | |
| Musculoskeletal Diseases | ongoing | 4030 (−4.9%) | 3957 (−7.7%) | 3980 (−8.3%) | 3985 (−9.3%) | 564 | 573 |
| started | 373 (−12.3%) | 238 (−37.4%) | 353 (−6.6%) | 446 (16.2%) | 512 | 525 | |
| ended | 375 (14.9%) | 321 (−15.1%) | 344 (−6.9%) | 682 (36.6%) | 536 | 549 | |
| Neoplasms | ongoing | 21,586 (−2.0%) | 21,730 (−2.7%) | 22,048 (−2.0%) | 22,306 (−2.1%) | 665 | 679 |
| started | 1122 (−16.7%) | 1109 (−13.9%) | 1507 (17.4%) | 1661 (27.4%) | 622 | 635 | |
| ended | 1052 (7.7%) | 1065 (1.6%) | 1184 (17.1%) | 2525 (72.1%) | 627 | 640 | |
| Nervous System Diseases | ongoing | 10,107 (−3.8%) | 10,034 (−5.5%) | 10,130 (−5.5%) | 10,177 (−6.0%) | 615 | 623 |
| started | 888 (−20.3%) | 628 (−35.3%) | 943 (−3.4%) | 1048 (12.3%) | 580 | 593 | |
| ended | 864 (3.7%) | 791 (−12.2%) | 820 (−16.3%) | 1679 (22.4%) | 593 | 606 | |
| Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases | ongoing | 5281 (−2.7%) | 5123 (−6.0%) | 5122 (−6.3%) | 5122 (−6.6%) | 583 | 593 |
| started | 490 (−14.5%) | 257 (−50.3%) | 471 (−9.2%) | 527 (4.8%) | 551 | 564 | |
| ended | 462 (4.9%) | 445 (−9.9%) | 470 (−4.7%) | 884 (42.0%) | 552 | 566 | |
| Pathological Conditions, Signs, and Symptoms | ongoing | 19,391 (−4.3%) | 19,255 (−5.5%) | 19,463 (−5.0%) | 19,557 (−5.1%) | 662 | 671 |
| started | 1774 (−20.2%) | 1391 (−27.5%) | 1926 (0.5%) | 2149 (14.9%) | 632 | 646 | |
| ended | 1852 (12.1%) | 1655 (−7.9%) | 1700 (−4.8%) | 3336 (35.1%) | 626 | 639 | |
| Respiratory Tract Diseases | ongoing | 6039 (−0.7%) | 6402 (4.7%) | 6573 (7.2%) | 6611 (6.6%) | 596 | 610 |
| started | 632 (16.0%) | 849 (74.3%) | 737 (46.9%) | 761 (45.3%) | 578 | 591 | |
| ended | 481 (16.6%) | 524 (10.9%) | 603 (29.8%) | 1167 (91.2%) | 547 | 561 | |
| Skin and Connective Tissue Diseases | ongoing | 5242 (−3.3%) | 5195 (−4.6%) | 5241 (−4.2%) | 5246 (−4.6%) | 579 | 588 |
| started | 386 (−14.4%) | 287 (−33.3%) | 421 (−1.4%) | 482 (13.7%) | 549 | 562 | |
| ended | 375 (−1.1%) | 367 (−9.8%) | 377 (−7.5%) | 770 (47.3%) | 532 | 545 | |
| Viral Diseases | ongoing | 2102 (4.5%) | 2433 (21.0%) | 2497 (24.2%) | 2485 (23.6%) | 567 | 572 |
| started | 298 (67.5%) | 551 (234.7%) | 346 (97.4%) | 318 (70.9%) | 519 | 530 | |
| ended | 151 (−2.4%) | 238 (31.5%) | 300 (78.8%) | 487 (144.7%) | 526 | 540 | |
| Wounds and Injuries | ongoing | 3040 (−3.0%) | 2978 (−6.2%) | 3034 (−5.6%) | 3008 (−7.6%) | 534 | 542 |
| started | 327 (−9.3%) | 196 (−32.4%) | 310 (4.3%) | 334 (26.1%) | 514 | 527 | |
| ended | 286 (17.5%) | 275 (6.2%) | 272 (1.3%) | 534 (41.1%) | 512 | 525 | |
Proportions (%) calculated based on the differences between actual study numbers per quarter (using data in the ClinicalTrials.gov database) and the forecasted values (predicted by the ETS models generated in this study) vs. the total predicted number of studies within each status subset.
aAkaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample bias.
bBayesian Information Criterion.