Table 7.
The best models to predict fatal outcomes in COVID-19 tested on larger groups of patients.
| Fatal Outcome | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR | 95% CI | p-Value | Sample Size n | NG |
LR
p-Value |
AIC | ||
| Variables | 25% | 75% | ||||||
| Model: albumin+TBIL | 26.886 | 7.227 | 105.600 | <0.0001 | 582 | 0.291 | <0.0001 | 645 |
| TBIL | 1.657 | 1.249 | 2.290 | 0.001 | ||||
| albumin | 0.229 | 0.151 | 0.340 | <0.0001 | ||||
| Hypertension | 1.538 | 0.982 | 2.420 | 0.061 | ||||
| Diabetes-1 | 0.800 | 0.159 | 3.190 | 0.764 | ||||
| Diabetes-2 | 1.814 | 1.071 | 3.070 | 0.026 | ||||
| Diabetes-3 | 1.723 | 0.819 | 3.580 | 0.146 | ||||
| Diabetes-4 | 3.292 | 0.895 | 11.440 | 0.063 | ||||
| Diabetes-5 | <0.001 | <0.001 | >1000 | 0.984 | ||||
| Asthma | 1.191 | 0.432 | 3.040 | 0.723 | ||||
| COPD | 0.806 | 0.259 | 2.360 | 0.700 | ||||
| Dementia | 1.473 | 0.709 | 3.070 | 0.298 | ||||
| Stroke/TIA in patient history | 0.916 | 0.449 | 1.820 | 0.804 | ||||
| Chronic kiedney disease | 0.614 | 0.354 | 1.050 | 0.077 | ||||
| Active smoker | 1.110 | 0.405 | 2.880 | 0.835 | ||||
| Former smoker | 0.818 | 0.283 | 2.200 | 0.699 | ||||
| Myocardial infraction in patient history | 2.904 | 1.609 | 5.310 | <0.001 | ||||
| Heart failure | 1.313 | 0.750 | 2.290 | 0.337 | ||||
| Leukemia | 6.608 | 1.617 | 30.450 | 0.010 | ||||
| Solid malignant disease without metastases | 1.017 | 0.443 | 2.240 | 0.967 | ||||
| Solid malignant disease with metastases | 0.286 | 0.065 | 1.010 | 0.068 | ||||
| Lymphoma | 1.895 | 0.338 | 8.780 | 0.431 | ||||
| Lenght of hospital stay | 0.974 | 0.960 | 0.990 | <0.001 | ||||
| OR | CI 95% | p-Value | Sample Size n | NG |
LR
p-Value |
AIC | ||
| Variables | 25% | 75% | ||||||
| Model: albumin+AST | 38.776 | 10.422 | 152.550 | <0.0001 | 603 | 0.305 | <0.0001 | 661.5 |
| albumin | 0.213 | 0.140 | 0.310 | <0.0001 | ||||
| AST | 1.003 | 1.001 | 1.010 | 0.008 | ||||
| Hypertension | 1.573 | 1.009 | 2.460 | 0.046 | ||||
| Diabetes-1 | 1.021 | 0.276 | 3.450 | 0.973 | ||||
| Diabetes-2 | 1.685 | 1.007 | 2.810 | 0.046 | ||||
| Diabetes-3 | 1.533 | 0.724 | 3.200 | 0.258 | ||||
| Diabetes-4 | 3.133 | 0.838 | 11.120 | 0.079 | ||||
| Diabetes-5 | <0.001 | <0.001 | >1000 | 0.980 | ||||
| Asthma | 1.011 | 0.363 | 2.600 | 0.983 | ||||
| COPD | 0.823 | 0.267 | 2.390 | 0.725 | ||||
| Dementia | 1.550 | 0.749 | 3.220 | 0.237 | ||||
| Stroke/TIA in patient history | 0.925 | 0.454 | 1.840 | 0.827 | ||||
| Chronic kiedney disease | 0.717 | 0.414 | 1.220 | 0.228 | ||||
| Active smoker | 1.267 | 0.484 | 3.190 | 0.621 | ||||
| Former smoker | 0.693 | 0.250 | 1.780 | 0.461 | ||||
| Myocardial infraction in patient history | 2.751 | 1.542 | 4.970 | 0.001 | ||||
| Heart failure | 1.520 | 0.882 | 2.610 | 0.129 | ||||
| Leukemia | 6.975 | 1.720 | 32.450 | 0.008 | ||||
| Solid malignant disease without metastases | 1.250 | 0.566 | 2.690 | 0.572 | ||||
| Solid malignant disease with metastases | 0.537 | 0.159 | 1.640 | 0.289 | ||||
| Lymphoma | 1.829 | 0.331 | 8.470 | 0.454 | ||||
| Lenght of hospital stay | 0.975 | 0.962 | 0.990 | < 0.001 | ||||
OR: Odds Ratio; 95% CI: Confidence Interval; NG: Nagelkerke pseudo R2; LR: Likelihood Ratio; AIC: Akaike Information Criterion; ICU: intensive care unit; TBIL: total bilirubin; AST: aspartate aminotransferase; Diabetes-1:diabetes mellitus type 1, including LADA; Diabates-2: diabetes mellitus type 2 treated with oral medications; Diabetes-3: diabetes mellitus type 2 treated with insulin; Diabtes-4: prediabetes; Diabtes-5: gestational diabetes; COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; TIA: transient ischemic attack.