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. 2022 Aug 15;380(2233):20210304. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0304

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© 2022 The Authors.

Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

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Figure 1. — Nationwide and regional epidemic time series. (a,b) The time series of the ABM ABC posterior of cases and deaths, respectively, along with the actual data [49]. (c) The time series of the model posterior of the fraction of cases by lineage along with the raw COG-UK data [41]. (d) The weekly cases per 100 k population in each of the nine English regions (electronic supplementary material, figure 3) along with the actual data [49]. The model correctly captures the shape of the curves in each region despite not containing region-specific dynamic parameters. (Online version in colour.)