Table 2:
Association between long-term variability in MAP (Within individual SD) and serious fall that resulted in hospital presentation in ASPREE participants occurring after the second annual visit (HR, 95% CI)
| Serious fall | Variability in MAP continuous (linear) | MAP variability tertiles | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 (reference) | T2 | T3 | ||
| All* | ||||
| N | 14,818 | 4948 | 4932 | 4938 |
| No of at least 1 fall | 974 | 291 | 334 | 349 |
| Model 1 | 1.02 (0.94, 1.10) | 1 | 1.04 (0.89, 1.21) | 1.00 (0.85, 1.16) |
| Model 2 | 1.04 (0.96, 1.13) | 1 | 1.05 (0.90, 1.23) | 1.04 (0.88, 1.22) |
| Model 3 | 1.04 (0.96, 1.12) | 1 | 1.05 (0.90, 1.23) | 1.03 (0.88, 1.21) |
| Model 4 | 1.03 (0.95, 1.12) | 1 | 1.04 (0.89, 1.22) | 1.01 (0.86, 1.19) |
| Analyses stratified by sex† | ||||
| Females | ||||
| N | 8056 | 2593 | 2653 | 2810 |
| No of at least 1 fall | 656 | 191 | 226 | 239 |
| Model 1 | 1.00 (0.92, 1.10) | 1 | 1.06 (0.87, 1.28) | 0.99 (0.82, 1.20) |
| Model 2 | 1.03 (0.93, 1.13) | 1 | 1.07 (0.88, 1.30) | 1.03 (0.84, 1.25) |
| Model 3 | 1.03 (0.93, 1.13) | 1 | 1.08 (0.89, 1.31) | 1.02 (0.84, 1.25) |
| Model 4 | 1.02 (0.93, 1.13) | 1 | 1.05 (0.86, 1.28) | 1.01 (0.83, 1.23) |
| Males | ||||
| N | 6762 | 2355 | 2279 | 2128 |
| No of at least 1 fall | 318 | 100 | 108 | 110 |
| Model 1 | 1.02 (0.89, 1.18) | 1 | 1.00 (0.76, 1.31) | 1.00 (0.76, 1.32) |
| Model 2 | 1.06 (0.91, 1.22) | 1 | 1.01 (0.78, 1.32) | 1.05 (0.80, 1.39) |
| Model 3 | 1.05 (0.91, 1.21) | 1 | 1.00 (0.76, 1.31) | 1.03 (0.78, 1.36) |
| Model 4 | 1.03 (0.89, 1.20) | 1 | 1.00 (0.76, 1.32) | 1.01 (0.76, 1.34) |
| Analyses stratified by prefrailty/frailty status‡ | ||||
| Not prefrail/frail | ||||
| N | 9310 | 3261 | 3083 | 2966 |
| No of at least 1 fall | 489 | 160 | 172 | 157 |
| Model 1 | 0.94 (0.84, 1.06) | 1 | 0.98 (0.79, 1.21) | 0.88 (0.70, 1.09) |
| Model 2 | 0.95 (0.85, 1.07) | 1 | 0.98(0.79, 1.22) | 0.89 (0.71, 1.12) |
| Model 3 | 0.95 (0.85, 1.07) | 1 | 0.98 (0.79, 1.22) | 0.89 (0.71, 1.12) |
| Model 4 | 0.93 (0.83, 1.06) | 1 | 0.95 (0.76, 1.18) | 0.85 (0.68, 1.07) |
| Prefrail/frail | ||||
| N | 5508 | 1687 | 1849 | 1972 |
| No of at least 1 fall | 485 | 131 | 162 | 192 |
| Model 1 | 1.07 (0.96, 1.19) | 1 | 1.09 (0.87, 1.38) | 1.11 (0.88, 1.38) |
| Model 2 | 1.11 (0.99, 1.23) | 1 | 1.12 (0.89, 1.41) | 1.17 (0.93, 1.47) |
| Model 3 | 1.11 (0.99, 1.24) | 1 | 1.12 (0.89, 1.42) | 1.18 (0.94, 1.48) |
| Model 4 | 1.11 (1.00, 1.25) | 1 | 1.14 (0.90, 1.44) | 1.20 (0.95, 1.52) |
MAP= Mean arterial pressure, T1=Bottom 33.3%, T2=Middle 33.3%, T3=Top 33.3%
Adjusted for Model 1: age, sex, Model 2: age, sex, baseline mean arterial pressure, Model 3: age, sex, mean arterial pressure, frailty status and Aspirin, Model 4: age, sex, mean arterial pressure, frailty status, Aspirin, alcohol consumption, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease before annual visit 2 and hospitalization for heart failure before annual visit 2
Adjusted for Model 1: age, Model 2: age, baseline mean arterial pressure, Model 3: age, mean arterial pressure, frailty status and Aspirin, Model 4: age, mean arterial pressure, frailty status, Aspirin, alcohol consumption, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease before annual visit 2 and hospitalization for heart failure before annual visit 2
Adjusted for Model 1: age, sex, Model 2: age, sex, baseline mean arterial pressure, Model 3: age, sex, mean arterial pressure, and Aspirin, Model 4: age, sex, mean arterial pressure, Aspirin, alcohol consumption, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease before annual visit 2 and hospitalization for heart failure before annual visit 2