Table 3:
Association between long-term variability in MAP (Within individual SD) and serious fall that resulted in hospital presentation in ASPREE participants occurring after the second annual visit, stratified by antihypertensive use status (n=14818, falls=979) (HR, 95% CI)
| Serious fall | Not on antihypertensive | On antihypertensive | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All (linear) | T1 | T2 | T3 | All (linear) | T1 | T2 | T3 | |
| All* | ||||||||
| N | 6436 | 2379 | 2178 | 1879 | 7688 | 2284 | 2503 | 2901 |
| Observed falls | 420 | 156 | 139 | 125 | 529 | 128 | 186 | 215 |
| Model 1 | 0.93 (0.82, 1.06) | 1 | 0.86 (0.68, 1.08) | 0.84 (0.67, 1.07) | 1.07 (1.01, 1.16) | 1 | 1.22 (1.02, 1.53) | 1.10 (1.01, 1.37) |
| Model 2 | 0.92 (0.80, 1.06) | 1 | 0.85 (0.68, 1.07) | 0.83 (0.65, 1.06) | 1.10 (1.02, 1.21) | 1 | 1.25 (1.02, 1.56) | 1.19 (1.02, 1.49) |
| Model 3 | 0.92 (0.81, 1.06) | 1 | 0.85 (0.72, 1.08) | 0.83 (0.65, 1.06) | 1.09 (1.02, 1.20) | 1 | 1.24 (1.03, 1.55) | 1.17 (1.02, 1.46) |
| Model 4 | 0.89 (0.77, 1.02) | 1 | 0.82 (0.65, 1.04) | 0.78 (0.61, 1.01) | 1.10 (1.01, 1.22) | 1 | 1.24 (1.03, 1.57) | 1.19 (1.03, 1.49) |
| Analyses stratified by sex† | ||||||||
| Females | ||||||||
| N | 3384 | 1215 | 1141 | 1028 | 4402 | 1280 | 1407 | 1715 |
| Observed falls | 270 | 94 | 93 | 83 | 374 | 94 | 130 | 150 |
| Model 1 | 0.98 (0.84, 1.15) | 1 | 0.91 (0.68, 1.22) | 0.88 (0.65, 1.19) | 1.00 (0.89, 1.13) | 1 | 1.18 (0.91, 1.54) | 1.04 (0.80, 1.34) |
| Model 2 | 0.97 (0.82, 1.15) | 1 | 0.90 (0.68, 1.21) | 0.86 (0.63, 1.17) | 1.04 (0.92, 1.17) | 1 | 1.20 (0.93, 1.57) | 1.11 (0.85, 1.45) |
| Model 3 | 0.97 (0.82, 1.15) | 1 | 0.91 (0.68, 1.21) | 0.86 (0.63, 1.17) | 1.04 (0.92, 1.17) | 1 | 1.21 (0.93, 1.58) | 1.11 (0.85, 1.44) |
| Model 4 | 0.92 (0.78, 1.10) | 1 | 0.84 (0.63, 1.14) | 0.80 (0.59, 1.12) | 1.05 (0.93, 1.19) | 1 | 1.20 (0.91, 1.57) | 1.12 (0.86, 1.47) |
| Male | ||||||||
| N | 3052 | 1164 | 1037 | 851 | 3286 | 1004 | 1096 | 1186 |
| Observed falls | 150 | 62 | 46 | 42 | 155 | 34 | 56 | 65 |
| Model 1 | 0.83 (0.65, 1.05) | 1 | 0.76 (0.52, 1.11) | 0.78 (0.53, 1.16) | 1.15 (0.96, 1.38) | 1 | 1.30 (0.87, 1.99) | 1.25 (0.99, 1.90) |
| Model 2 | 0.82 (0.65, 1.05) | 1 | 0.75 (0.52, 1.11) | 0.78 (0.52, 1.16) | 1.23 (1.02, 1.48) | 1 | 1.32 (0.88, 2.02) | 1.39 (1.01, 2.12) |
| Model 3 | 0.83 (0.65, 1.05) | 1 | 0.75 (0.52, 1.17) | 0.78 (0.52, 1.17) | 1.21 (1.01, 1.46) | 1 | 1.28 (0.86, 2.23) | 1.32 (1.00, 2.03) |
| Model 4 | 0.80 (0.62, 1.03) | 1 | 0.76 (0.51, 1.13) | 0.75 (0.50, 1.14) | 1.20 (1.01, 1.46) | 1 | 1.33 (0.89, 2.07) | 1.32 (1.01, 2.04) |
| Analyses stratified by prefrailty/frailty status‡ | ||||||||
| Not prefrail/frail | ||||||||
| N | 4194 | 1609 | 1412 | 1173 | 4590 | 1426 | 1487 | 1677 |
| Observed falls | 229 | 84 | 86 | 59 | 243 | 70 | 82 | 91 |
| Model 1 | 0.86 (0.71, 1.03) | 1 | 0.97 (0.72, 1.32) | 0.76 (0.55, 1.32) | 0.99 (0.85, 1.15) | 1 | 1.00 (0.73, 1.38) | 0.93 (0.68, 1.27) |
| Model 2 | 0.85 (0.70, 1.03) | 1 | 0.97 (0.72, 1.31) | 0.75 (0.53, 1.06) | 1.02 (0.87, 1.20) | 1 | 1.01 (0.74, 1.39) | 0.99 (0.72, 1.36) |
| Model 3 | 0.85 (0.70, 1.03) | 1 | 0.97 (0.72, 1.31) | 0.75 (0.53, 1.06) | 1.02 (0.87, 1.20) | 1 | 1.01 (0.73, 1.38) | 0.98 (0.71, 1.35) |
| Model 4 | 0.80 (0.66. 0.98) | 1 | 0.89 (0.66, 1.22) | 0.68 (0.48, 0.98) | 1.02 (0.87, 1.20) | 1 | 1.01 (0.73, 1.40) | 0.97 (0.70, 1.35) |
| Prefrail/frail | ||||||||
| N | 2242 | 770 | 766 | 706 | 3098 | 858 | 1016 | 1224 |
| Observed falls | 191 | 72 | 53 | 66 | 286 | 58 | 104 | 124 |
| Model 1 | 1.01 (0.84, 1.23) | 1 | 0.71 (0.50, 1.01) | 0.93 (0.66, 1.30) | 1.08 (1.00, 1.23) | 1 | 1.46 (1.06, 2.02) | 1.28 (1.00, 1.75) |
| Model 2 | 1.01 (0.82, 1.23) | 1 | 0.70 (0.49, 1.01) | 0.90 (0.64, 1.28) | 1.13 (0.99, 1.30) | 1 | 1.51 (1.09, 2.08) | 1.39 (1.01, 1.91) |
| Model 3 | 1.01 (0.83, 1.23) | 1 | 0.70 (0.49, 1.00) | 0.90 (0.64, 1.28) | 1.14 (1.00, 1.30) | 1 | 1.51 (1.10, 2.09) | 1.40 (1.02, 1.93) |
| Model 4 | 0.99 (0.81, 1.21) | 1 | 0.72 (0.50, 1.03) | 0.90 (0.63, 1.29) | 1.16 (1.02, 1.33) | 1 | 1.52 (1.10, 2.12) | 1.46 (1.06, 2.02) |
MAP= Mean arterial pressure; SD=standard deviation; %, T1=Bottom 33.3%, T2=Middle 33.3%, T3=Top 33.3%
Adjusted for Model 1: age, sex, Model 2: age, sex, baseline mean arterial pressure, Model 3: age, sex, mean arterial pressure, frailty status and Aspirin, Model 4: age, sex, mean arterial pressure, frailty status, Aspirin, alcohol consumption, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease before annual visit 2 and hospitalization for heart failure before annual visit 2
Adjusted for Model 1: age, Model 2: age, baseline mean arterial pressure, Model 3: age, mean arterial pressure, frailty status and Aspirin, Model 4: age, mean arterial pressure, frailty status, Aspirin, alcohol consumption, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease before annual visit 2 and hospitalization for heart failure before annual visit 2
Adjusted for Model 1: age, sex, Model 2: age, sex, baseline mean arterial pressure, Model 3: age, sex, mean arterial pressure, and Aspirin, Model 4: age, sex, mean arterial pressure, Aspirin, alcohol consumption, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease before annual visit 2 and hospitalization for heart failure before annual visit 2