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. 2022 Aug 16;17(8):e0270833. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270833

Table 1. Parameter inputs used in the economic analysis.

Baseline characteristics of children
Mean SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source (references)
Proportion male 87.57% 1.47% Beta-bionomial 84.69% 90.45% IPD Meta-analysis
Proportion with intellectual disability (IQ<70) 82.95% 3.32% Beta-bionomial 57.32% 61.55% IPD Meta-analysis
Age in months 36 0 NA NA NA Assumption
Adaptive behaviour (VABS) 63.19 0.43 Beta-bionomial 62.35 64.04 IPD Meta-analysis
Cognitive ability (IQ) 59.43 1.08 Beta-bionomial 57.32 61.55 IPD Meta-analysis
Autism symptom severity (ADOS) 6.98 0.18 Beta-bionomial 6.63 7.33 IPD Meta-analysis
Natural history
Mean SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
Adaptive behaviour (VABs) * —0.45 1.27 Normal -2.94 2.04 [3134]
Cognitive ability * -0.28 1.24 Normal -2.70 2.14
Short-term treatment effect year 1
Mean SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
Adaptive behaviour (VABs) * 2.92 2.46 Normal -1.90 7.76 IPD Meta-analysis
Cognitive ability (IQ) * 9.16 2.44 Normal 4.38 13.93
Short-term treatment effect year 2
Mean SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
Adaptive behaviour(VABs) * 7.00 2.58 Normal 1.95 12.06 IPD Meta-analysis
Cognitive ability (IQ) * 14.13 2.54 Normal 9.16 19.10
Education type regression coefficients Primary school
Coefficient SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
Adaptive behaviour (VABs) -0.08 0.02 Normal -0.12 -0.042 [34, 35]
Cognitive ability (IQ) -.02 0.01 Normal -0.051 0.006
Cut 1 (mainstream with support) -8.75 0.02 Normal -11.08 -6.42
Cut 2 (specialist schooling) -6.10 0.86 Normal -7.781 -4.41
Education type regression coefficients Secondary school
Coefficient SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
Adaptive behaviour (VABs) -0.04 0.02 Normal -12.48 -6.27 [36]
Cognitive ability (IQ) -0.06 0.02 Normal -9.32 -3.89
Cut 1 (mainstream with support) -9.37 1.58 Normal -0.084 -0.001
Cut 2 (specialist schooling) -6.60 1.39 Normal -0.089 -0.025
Educational placement based (observed values applied in scenario analysis only)
Coefficient SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
Mainstream (ABA) 30% N/A N/A N/A N/A [10, 34, 35]
Mainstream with support (ABA) 38% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Special education (ABA) 32% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Mainstream (TAU) 1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Mainstream with support (TAU) 27% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Special education (TAU) 72% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Regression model used to predict quality of life in Children
Coefficient SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
Constant −0.2438 0.2015 Beta-bionomial -0.639 0.154 [37]
Age 0.0119 0.0186 Beta-bionomial -0.025 0.048
Age2 0.0003 0.0010 Beta-bionomial -0.002 0.001
ADOS score -0.0063 0.0078 Beta-bionomial 0.0071 0.013
Cognitive ability (IQ; Log) 0.0304 0.0478 Beta-bionomial -0.063 0.124
Adaptive behaviour (VABs) 0.0103 0.0016 Beta-bionomial -0.021 0.009
Costs of interventions
Mean SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
ABA-based interventions £36,682.78 £7,336 Gamma £22,303 £51,062 Micro-costed [38, 39]
TAU £8,634.33 £1,726 Gamma £5,249 £12,019 Assumption/personnel communication.
Social care and medical costs
Coefficient SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
Intercept £1,900.09 £762.41 Normal $405. £3394 [36]
Adaptive behaviour (VABs) -£8.78 £13.98 Normal -£36.18 £18.63
Cognitive ability (IQ) -£7.81 £10.99 Normal -£29.35 £13.74
Costs of Schooling
Mean SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
Mainstream School £4,417.70 £883 Gamma £2,686 £6,149 [36]
Supported £8,689.78 £1,737 Gamma £5,283 £12,096
Special School £15,702.78 £3,140 Gamma £9,547 £21,858
Adult care costs
Mean SE Distribution Lower bound Upper bound Source
Own home/parents £0.00 NA NA NA NA [38, 40]
Sheltered -Low intensity £53,274.88 £10,654.98 Gamma £32,391 £74,159
Sheltered—High intensity £99,336.44 £19,867.29 Gamma £60,397 £13,8276
Residential £115,553.00 £23,110.60 Gamma £70,256 £16,0850
Day services £17,728.57 £3,545.71 Gamma £10,779 £24,678
Respite care £1,927.00 £385.40 Gamma £1,172 £2,682
Employment support £290.00 £58.00 Gamma £176 £404
Adult education £4,159.00 £831.80 Gamma £2529 5789.328
Hospital £43.00 £8.60 Gamma £26.14 59.86
Other health and social services £726.00 £145.20 Gamma £441 £1,010

ABA = Applied Behaviour Analysis, ADOS = Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, IQ = intelligence quotient, SE = Standard error, TAU = Treatment as Usual, VABs = Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales

* Annual changes in scores