Fig. 2. Comparison between aggregated model fits and epidemiological data from England between March 2020 and May 2022.

Black lines show reported data, with black ribbons showing 95% confidence intervals for PCR prevalence. Coloured lines and shaded areas show medians, 50% and 90% interquantile ranges from the fitted model. The original model fitting is done independently for each NHS England region (see Fig. S1A, B), with the aggregated model output for the whole of England shown here. a COVID-19 deaths over time, where data was provided by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). b COVID-19 hospital admissions over time, where data was provided by NHS England. c COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy over time, where data was provided by NHS England. d COVID-19 ICU bed occupancy over time, where data was provided by NHS England. e COVID-19 PCR prevalence over time, where publicly-available PCR prevalence data was obtained from the Office for National Statistics’ COVID-19 Infection Survey (ONS-CIS)⁵³. The data sources for COVID-19 deaths, hospital admissions, hospital and ICU bed occupancy are unpublished and not publicly available but are closely aligned with the UK Government’s COVID-19 dashboard². ICU intensive care unit. NHS National Health Service.