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. 2022 Aug 19;13:4879. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — Top: Historic Google Community Mobility data²² (grey) and assumed future mobility in England for no change (pink), a 3-week return to pre-pandemic baseline levels (green), a 3-month return to pre-pandemic baseline levels (orange) and a 6-month return to pre-pandemic baseline levels (purple) scenarios used for model projections. Mobility indices are measured relative to baseline mobility levels recorded during early 2020, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The beginning of each lockdown and each roadmap Step⁴ is marked with a vertical dashed line and ‘L’ and ‘S’ labels, respectively. Vertical dashed lines with ‘PBA’ and ‘PBE’ labels correspond to the announcement of ‘Plan B’ measures for England on 8th December 2021 and the ending of these measures on 27th January 2022⁶⁷. Middle: Fitted transmission adjustments between April 2020 and May 2022 by NHS England region (coloured lines) and the average across regions (black line), example projection between May and December 2022 for East of England (blue line) and mean (black line) and interquartile range (red shaded) for projected transmission adjustments between May and December 2022 across NHS England regions. Bottom: The overall transmission potential captures the combined impact of mobility and transmission adjustments on the time-varying potential for effective transmission, ignoring the impact of immunity and novel variants, though including the impact of school vacation periods. NE & Y North East & Yorkshire. NHS National Health Service.