Fig. 1. Heterogeneous treatment effects of remote learning on dropout risk and standardized test scores by grade.

a,b, Effect sizes (bars) estimated through grade-specific OLS regressions using the differences-in-differences model, with 95% confidence intervals (error bars) based on standard errors clustered at the school level, where the dependent variable is high dropout risk (=1 if the student had no maths or Portuguese grades on record for that school quarter, and 0 otherwise, N = 8,543,586) (a) or scores from quarterly standardized tests (AAPs), averaging maths and Portuguese scores for that school quarter (N = 7,097,042) (b). All regressions follow the specification in column 5 of Table 1, only restricting observations to each grade. We normalize each effect size by its baseline mean, to express them as percentage changes. In a, the estimates are divided by the variation in the percentage of students with dropout risk = 1 between Q1 and Q4 of 2019 within each grade. In b, the estimates are divided by the variation in standardized test scores between Q1 and Q4 of 2019 within each grade. All columns include an indicator variable equal to 1 for municipalities that authorized schools to reopen from September 2020 onwards, and 0 otherwise (allowing its effects to vary at Q4), and a third-degree polynomial of propensity scores, and re-weight observations by the inverse of their propensity score.