Fig. 3. Optimal isolation guideline for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases using antigen test (detection limit=10⁶ copies/mL).

a Probability of prematurely ending isolation (upper panels) and mean length of unnecessarily prolonged isolation (lower panels) for different values of the interval between antigen tests and the number of consecutive negative results necessary to end isolation for each case; the infectiousness threshold value is set to 10^4.5 copies/mL. The areas surrounded by sky-blue dotted lines and blue solid lines are those with 1% or 5% or lower of risk of prematurely ending isolation of infectious patients, respectively, and the triangles and squares correspond to the conditions which realize the shortest prolonged isolation within each area. b The same as a, but for an infectiousness threshold value of 10^5.0 copies/mL. c The same as a, but for an infectiousness threshold value of 10^5.5 copies/mL. Color keys and symbols apply to all panels. Note that the estimate values are based on 100 simulations with 1000 patients each for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, respectively. Accordingly, 1000 parameter sets were sampled from the posterior distribution of each model parameter.