Fig. 4. Comparison between the situations of high and low detection limits for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.

a Distributions of length of prolonged isolation for different infectiousness threshold values, detection limits, and symptom presence when considering a 5% or lower risk of prematurely ending isolation. The violin plots show the kernel probability density, whereas the box plots show the median (50 percentile; bold lines) and interquartile ranges (25 and 75 percentiles; boxes). Note that the interval between antigen tests and the number of consecutive negative results necessary to end isolation were selected to minimize the duration of prolonged isolation. b The same as a, but considering a 1% or lower risk of prematurely ending isolation. Note that the estimate values are based on 100 simulations with 1000 patients each for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, respectively. Accordingly, 1000 parameter sets were sampled from the posterior distribution of each model parameter.