Table 2.
Multiple logistic regression analyses with ORs for accelerated GFR decline and incident CKD
| Outcome definition: | Accelerated declinea |
Incident CKDb |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | OR | 95% CI | P | OR | 95% CI | P |
| Crude: Protein only. | ||||||
| MMP7, per SD increase | 1.52 | 1.28–1.80 | <0.001 | 1.91 | 1.43–2.55 | <0.001 |
| MMP7, first quartile | Ref. | – | – | – | ||
| MMP7, second quartile | 0.59 | 0.33–1.07 | 0.08 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, third quartile | 0.90 | 0.52–1.53 | 0.69 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, fourth quartile | 1.77 | 1.10–2.84 | 0.019 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, first to third quartiles | Ref. | Ref. | ||||
| MMP7, fourth quartile | 2.11 | 1.45–3.07 | <0.001 | 3.00 | 1.55–5.78 | 0.001 |
| Model 1 | ||||||
| MMP7, per SD increase | 1.68 | 1.39–2.04 | <0.001* | 1.62 | 1.19–2.19 | 0.002** |
| MMP7, first quartile | Ref. | – | – | – | ||
| MMP7, second quartile | 0.56 | 0.30–1.02 | 0.06 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, third quartile | 0.84 | 0.48–1.47 | 0.54 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, fourth quartile | 1.74 | 1.05–2.87 | 0.031 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, first to third quartiles | Ref. | Ref. | ||||
| MMP7, fourth quartile | 2.18 | 1.46–3.25 | <0.001 | 2.35 | 1.19–4.64 | 0.01 |
| Model 2 | – | – | – | |||
| MMP7, per SD increase | 1.66 | 1.37–2.01 | <0.001* | – | – | – |
| MMP7, first quartile | Ref. | – | – | – | ||
| MMP7, second quartile | 0.56 | 0.30–1.03 | 0.06 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, third quartile | 0.82 | 0.47–1.45 | 0.54 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, fourth quartile | 1.72 | 1.04–2.85 | 0.031 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, first to third quartiles | Ref. | – | – | – | ||
| MMP7, fourth quartile | 2.17 | 1.45–3.24 | <0.001 | – | – | – |
| Model 3 | – | – | – | |||
| MMP7, per SD increase | 1.58 | 1.30–1.93 | <0.001* | – | – | – |
| MMP7, first quartile | Ref. | – | – | – | ||
| MMP7, second quartile | 0.56 | 030–1.04 | 0.07 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, third quartile | 0.81 | 0.46–1.42 | 0.46 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, fourth quartile | 1.52 | 0.90–2.56 | 0.11 | – | – | – |
| MMP7, first to third quartiles | Ref. | – | – | – | ||
| MMP7, fourth quartile | 1.93 | 1.27–2.92 | 0.002 | – | – | – |
Model 1: adjusted for: sex, age, baseline mGFR and ACR (mg/mmol).
Model 2: adjusted for: Model 1 + BMI, sBP and fasting glucose.
Model 3: adjusted for: Model 2 + ever smoker and BP medication.
Defined as 10% steepest decline (annual GFR decline rate >1.78 mL/min/1.73 m2 calculated using linear mixed model regression). n = 1289 in total and n = 131 with accelerated GFR decline.
Incident CKD, defined as new-onset GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and/or ACR ≥3.0 at FU (n = 1256 in total and n = 37 with incident CKD). Only four variables were included in the fully adjusted model (Model 1) due to few outcomes.
P = 0.008, P = 0.011 and P = 0.009 for the quadratic term of MMP7 in Models 1–3.
P = 0.23 for the quadratic term of MMP7 in Model 1.