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. 2022 Aug 22;13:4924. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31991-0

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — a The inferred precautionary behaviour in England from April 2020 to December 2021; younger individuals are under 40, older individuals are over 65, while those in between are a linear extrapolation. b The resultant changes to R excluding immunity for the three main variants. c, d A comparison between fitted precautionary behaviour and Google movement records²⁷ in two NHS regions. Vertical lines indicate the time of key changes to the control measures. Labels are key moments from the pandemic in England: Lockdowns are nationwide restrictions on movement and social mixing; Tiers are localised restrictions of varying degrees; Steps are as described throughout this document; EUROS are the UEFA European Football Championships that led to substantially increased levels of social mixing; while the Pingdemic is a period when there was a vast increase in mobile-phone App alerts due to high levels of cases and more frequent social mixing. The dates of the six Roadmaps (R1-R5) are marked on the lower axes. In all panels the bold lines are mean values; in the top two panels a, b, the shaded area represents the 95% credible interval, whereas in the bottom panels both the 50% (dark grey) and 95% (lighter grey) intervals are shown.