Table 1.
Summary of the magnitude of demographic dividend and demographic windows of opportunity from previous studies in the Indian context
| Study | Time frame | Magnitude of demographic dividend (in percentage) | Demographic window of opportunity | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloom and Williamson (1998) | 1965–1990 | 1.34* | 1.38* (estimated for 1990–2025) | Conditional Barro Convergence Model (OLS) |
| Navaneetham (2002) | 1950–1992 |
Age share 15–24 = 0.30 25–49 = 0.06 50–64 = − 0.17 |
1980–2025 | Multiple regression analysis |
| Mitra and Nagarajan (2005) | 1950–2050 | NA | 1980–2035 | United Nations World Population Prospects 2002 data on the relative share of the working-age group |
| Mason (2005) | 1950–2050 | 0.14* | 1985–2045* | National Transfer Accounts Method based on life-cycle approach (Lee and Mason Model) |
| James (2008) | 1971–2001 | 24.19 (4.19) | NA | Conditional Barro Convergence Model (IV specification) |
| Bloom and Finlay (2008) | 1965–2005 | 1.02 | 0.67 (estimated for 2005–2050) | Conditional Barro Convergence Model (OLS) |
| Mason et al. (2010) | 1890–2100 | 18# | 1990–2025 | National Transfer Accounts Method based on life-cycle approach (Lee and Mason Model) |
| Goli and Pandey, (2010) | 1951–2050 | NA | 2015–2040 | United Nations World Population Prospects 2002 and UN’s definition for windows of opportunity |
| Bloom et al. (2010) | 1960–2000 | 0.7 | NA | Conditional Barro Convergence Model (2SLS) |
| Ladusingh and Narayana (2011) | 1980–2295 | 9.1# | 1980–2035 | National Transfer Accounts Method based on life-cycle approach (Lee and Mason Model) |
| Aiyar and Mody (2011) | 1961–2001 | 2.48 (1.03) | 1970–2040 | Conditional Barro Convergence Model (OLS specification) |
| Thakur (2012) | 1981–2011 | - 0.02 (0.94) | NA | Conditional Barro Convergence Model (OLS specification) |
| Navaneetham and Dharmalingam (2012) | 1950–2040 | 0.4 | 1970–2030 | Difference between the growth rates of the working-age population (25–59) and the total population |
| Kumar (2013) | 1971–2001 | 2.72 (1.16) | NA | Conditional Barro Convergence Model (OLS specification) |
| Ghosh (2016) | 1961–2011 | 0.3 (0.10) | 1.56 (projected till 2026) | Conditional Barro Convergence Model (2SLS) |
| Joe et al. (2018) | 1980–2010 | 0.45 (1.57) | NA | Conditional Barro Convergence Model (OLS specification) |
NA means not available. The standard error is reported in parenthesis in column 3
#Income per effective consumer estimates for a first demographic dividend
*Regional estimate for South Asia. Bloom (2011, p. 11) has noted that India’s demographic indicators are similar to those of the South Asian region as a whole