Table 2. Associations Between Changes in Drinking Level and Cancer.
| Drinking level | No. (%) | Person-years | Cancer incidence rate per 1000 person-years | HR (95% CI) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2011 | Participants | Events | Model 1a | Model 2b | |||
| Alcohol-related cancers | None | None | 2 218 002 (49.1) | 39 765 (49.5) | 13 985 909.0 | 2.8 | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] |
| None | Mild | 297 258 (6.6) | 4958 (6.2) | 1 873 661.5 | 2.6 | 0.93 (0.90-0.96) | 1.03 (1.00-1.06) | |
| None | Moderate | 43 165 (1.0) | 816 (1.0) | 270 934.5 | 3.0 | 1.06 (0.99-1.14) | 1.10 (1.02-1.18) | |
| None | Heavy | 24 761 (0.5) | 577 (0.7) | 154 205.1 | 3.7 | 1.32 (1.21-1.43) | 1.34 (1.23-1.45) | |
| Mild | None | 305 582 (6.8) | 5425 (6.8) | 1 923 062.0 | 2.8 | 1.15 (1.12-1.19) | 0.96 (0.93-0.99) | |
| Mild | Mild | 663 193 (14.7) | 10 214 (12.7) | 4 178 738.4 | 2.4 | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] | |
| Mild | Moderate | 138 073 (3.1) | 2358 (2.9) | 867 957.0 | 2.7 | 1.11 (1.06-1.16) | 1.10 (1.05-1.15) | |
| Mild | Heavy | 41 864 (0.9) | 856 (1.1) | 261 888.9 | 3.3 | 1.34 (1.25-1.43) | 1.17 (1.09-1.25) | |
| Moderate | None | 44 370 (1.0) | 984 (1.2) | 276 633.2 | 3.6 | 1.35 (1.26-1.45) | 1.05 (0.98-1.14) | |
| Moderate | Mild | 160 850 (3.6) | 2822 (3.5) | 1 009 333.3 | 2.8 | 1.06 (1.01-1.12) | 0.98 (0.93-1.04) | |
| Moderate | Moderate | 177 446 (3.9) | 2938 (3.7) | 1 114 432.3 | 2.6 | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] | |
| Moderate | Heavy | 79 693 (1.8) | 1495 (1.9) | 499 352.0 | 3.0 | 1.14 (1.07-1.21) | 1.04 (0.98-1.11) | |
| Heavy | None | 27 373 (0.6) | 778 (1.0) | 168 497.5 | 4.6 | 1.28 (1.18-1.38) | 1.04 (0.96-1.12) | |
| Heavy | Mild | 53 347 (1.2) | 1149 (1.4) | 332 919.1 | 3.5 | 0.95 (0.89-1.02) | 0.92 (0.86-0.98) | |
| Heavy | Moderate | 88 535 (2.0) | 1736 (2.2) | 553 395.5 | 3.1 | 0.87 (0.82-0.92) | 0.91 (0.86-0.97) | |
| Heavy | Heavy | 150 234 (3.3) | 3392 (4.2) | 937 483.6 | 3.6 | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] | |
| All cancers (except thyroid) | None | None | 2 218 002 (49.1) | 104 645 (48.5) | 13 834 229.0 | 7.6 | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] |
| None | Mild | 297 258 (6.6) | 12 916 (6.0) | 1 854 643.0 | 7.0 | 0.92 (0.90-0.94) | 0.98 (0.97-1.00) | |
| None | Moderate | 43 165 (1.0) | 2267 (1.1) | 267 413.2 | 8.5 | 1.12 (1.08-1.17) | 0.98 (0.94-1.03) | |
| None | Heavy | 24 761 (0.5) | 1600 (0.7) | 151 910.8 | 10.5 | 1.40 (1.33-1.47) | 1.12 (1.07-1.18) | |
| Mild | None | 305 582 (6.8) | 14 624 (6.8) | 1 901 404.6 | 7.7 | 1.11 (1.09-1.14) | 0.98 (0.96-1.00) | |
| Mild | Mild | 663 193 (14.7) | 28 515 (13.2) | 4 134 254.3 | 6.9 | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] | |
| Mild | Moderate | 138 073 (3.1) | 6512 (3.0) | 858 167.6 | 7.6 | 1.10 (1.07-1.13) | 1.02 (0.99-1.05) | |
| Mild | Heavy | 41 864 (0.9) | 2383 (1.1) | 258 324.6 | 9.2 | 1.34 (1.28-1.40) | 1.09 (1.04-1.13) | |
| Moderate | None | 44 370 (1.0) | 2852 (1.3) | 272 309.1 | 10.5 | 1.41 (1.35-1.47) | 1.07 (1.03-1.12) | |
| Moderate | Mild | 160 850 (3.6) | 7930 (3.7) | 997 209.7 | 8.0 | 1.07 (1.04-1.10) | 0.98 (0.95-1.02) | |
| Moderate | Moderate | 177 446 (3.9) | 8213 (3.8) | 1 102 016.0 | 7.5 | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] | |
| Moderate | Heavy | 79 693 (1.8) | 4097 (1.9) | 493 498.5 | 8.3 | 1.11 (1.07-1.16) | 1.01 (0.97-1.05) | |
| Heavy | None | 27 373 (0.6) | 2143 (1.0) | 165 607.5 | 12.9 | 1.32 (1.26-1.38) | 1.07 (1.02-1.12) | |
| Heavy | Mild | 53 347 (1.2) | 3111 (1.4) | 328 378.0 | 9.5 | 0.97 (0.93-1.01) | 0.92 (0.89-0.96) | |
| Heavy | Moderate | 88 535 (2.0) | 4789 (2.2) | 546 300.8 | 8.8 | 0.89 (0.86-0.93) | 0.96 (0.92-0.99) | |
| Heavy | Heavy | 150 234 (3.3) | 9079 (4.2) | 924 473.2 | 9.8 | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] | |
Abbreviation: HR, hazard ratio.
a
Model 1: crude model.
b
Model 2: adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic position (income level and place of residence), smoking status, physical activity, comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, chronic kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and Charlson Comorbidity Index.