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. 2022 Jul 12;145(3):725–761. doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.05.006

Table 4.

ZIP PPPE in Round 1 and PPP Reallocation across Funding Sources. Table 4 shows the correlation between PPPE and the fraction of eligible establishments receiving PPP loans from different sources in the first and second rounds of the program. The left-hand-side variable in column (1) is the fraction of eligible establishments within a ZIP and 2-digit NAICS industry that received PPP in the first round in Panel A and in both rounds in Panel B. Left-hand-side variables in other columns represent a decomposition of the dependent variable in column (1) into the fraction of establishments within a ZIP and 2-digit NAICS industry that received PPP from local banks, non-local banks, credit unions, FinTech companies, and other nonbanks. ZIP PPPE (Round 1) is the weighted average of bank PPPE during the first round at the ZIP level. The weights are defined by the share of the number of branches of each bank within 10 miles of the center of the respective ZIP. ZIP PPPE is standardized to permit coefficients to be interpreted as the effect of a one-standard-deviation increase in ZIP PPPE and observations are weighted by the number of eligible establishments in each zip-industry pair. Predicted PPPE is the weighted average of predicted bank PPPE during the first round at the ZIP level. The predicted values of bank PPPE are obtained from estimating the empirical specification of column (8) of Table 2. The weights are defined by the share of the number of branches of each bank in the zip code or within 10 miles of the center of the respective ZIP. Eligible establishment counts equal all establishments in a ZIP less an estimate of the share of establishments with more than 500 employees (which are not eligible for PPP) plus an estimate of the number of proprietorships likely to apply for PPP. All regressions include state-by-NAICS fixed effects. Standard errors are presented in parentheses, and are clustered at the state level. ***, **, and *, represent statistical significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.

Panel A: Allocation in Round 1
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
PPP Loans Relative to All Establishments by Lender Source
PPP/Est (%) Local Banks Non-Local Banks Credit Unions FinTech Nonbanks

Zip PPPE (Round #1) 5.458*** 5.401*** 0.162 0.152 -0.204*** -0.007
(0.736) (0.581) (0.117) (0.109) (0.021) (0.020)

Observations 250078 250678 251344 251468 251488 251435
Adjusted R2 0.408 0.390 0.126 0.156 0.294 0.045
State×Industry FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

PPP/Est (%) Local Banks Non-Local Banks Credit Unions FinTech Nonbanks

Predicted PPPE 2.837*** 2.961*** -0.085 0.054 -0.073*** 0.003
(0.981) (0.866) (0.149) (0.093) (0.024) (0.017)

Observations 250078 250678 251344 251468 251488 251435
Adjusted R2 0.380 0.357 0.126 0.155 0.290 0.045
State×Industry FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Panel B: Allocation in Round 1 and 2

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

PPP Loans Relative to All Establishments by Lender Source
PPP/Est (%) Local Banks Non-Local Banks Credit Unions FinTech Nonbanks

Zip PPPE (Round #1) -1.580*** 1.224*** -1.942*** 0.310 -1.480*** -0.139*
(0.345) (0.350) (0.271) (0.336) (0.191) (0.080)

Observations 234128 244928 250263 251342 251377 251387
Adjusted R2 0.359 0.324 0.199 0.222 0.231 0.088
State×Industry FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

PPP/Est (%) Local Banks Non-Local Banks Credit Unions FinTech Nonbanks

Predicted PPPE -0.660 0.932* -1.095*** 0.031 -0.751*** -0.040
(0.453) (0.516) (0.391) (0.287) (0.262) (0.041)

Observations 234128 244928 250263 251342 251377 251387
Adjusted R2 0.358 0.323 0.193 0.221 0.213 0.087
State×Industry FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes