Table 10.

PPP Receipt, Missed Payments, and Cash-on-Hand (Census Pulse Survey). Table 10 reports the results of OLS and IV regressions examining the relation between the geographic allocation of PPP funds during the first round and outcomes from the Census Small Business Pulse Survey. Survey outcomes cover the nine weeks from April 26th through June 27th. The left-hand-side variable in the top panel is the percentage of firms reporting a missed scheduled loan payment. The left-hand-side variable in the middle panel is the percentage of firms reporting a missed other scheduled payment such as rent, utilities, and payroll. The left-hand-side variable in the bottom panel is the fraction of businesses with cash on hand to sustain operations for three months or more. % PPP Received is the percentage of businesses reporting having received PPP funds in a state-by-industry group. State PPPE is the weighted state average of bank PPPE at the end of the first round, where the weights are given by the share of the number of branches of each bank in each state. State Predicted PPPE is the weighted state average of predicted bank PPPE at the end of the first round. The predicted values of bank PPPE are obtained from the empirical specification of column (8) of Table 2. The weights are defined by the share of the number of branches of each bank in the state. Regressions include controls for: Pre-PPP Decline Hours Worked, which equals the average decline in hours worked in each state between January and the last week of March; Pre-PPP State Covid-19 Cases (per capita) and Pre-PPP State Covid-19 Deaths (per capita) at the state level; and Pre-PPP State Social Distancing Index, which is the change in average distance traveled in the state until the end of March using individuals’ GPS signals. All specifications include industry$\times$week fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the state level. ***, **, and *, represent statistical significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	OLS	IV 1st Stage	IV 2nd Stage	IV 1st Stage	IV 2nd Stage
LHS Variable	% Miss Loan Pmt	% PPP Rec.	% Miss Loan Pmt	% PPP Rec.	% Miss Loan Pmt
% PPP Received	-0.013		-0.166***		-0.184***
	(0.011)		(0.035)		(0.039)
State PPPE		31.238***
		(2.910)
State Predicted PPPE				62.610***
				(7.630)
Observations	3659	3659	3659	3659	3659
Adjusted $R^2$	0.518	0.614	-0.119	0.601	-0.147
FStat			115.265		67.343
LHS Variable	% Miss Schd Pmt	% PPP Rec.	% Miss Schd Pmt	% PPP Rec.	% Miss Schd Pmt
% PPP Received	-0.082***		-0.492***		-0.492***
	(0.018)		(0.066)		(0.063)
State PPPE		31.014***
		(2.880)
State Predicted PPPE				62.154***
				(7.447)
Observations	3612	3612	3612	3612	3612
Adjusted $R^2$	0.646	0.619	-0.128	0.606	-0.128
FStat			115.934		69.656
LHS Variable	% Cash 3 mths	% PPP Rec.	% Cash 3 mths	% PPP Rec.	% Cash 3 mths
% PPP Received	0.009		0.380**		0.316**
	(0.030)		(0.143)		(0.149)
State PPPE		26.992***
		(2.961)
State Predicted PPPE				58.403***
				(6.815)
Observations	1445	1445	1445	1445	1445
Adjusted $R^2$	0.603	0.774	-0.270	0.767	-0.200
FStat			83.103		73.435
Controls	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Industry$\times$Week Fixed Effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes