Table 3.

Probability of reaching an endpoint by risk factor

	Mortality (108/974 [11%])			Worsening WHO score (259/974 [27%])
	Probability of endpoint	Times difference	p value	Probability of endpoint	Times difference	p value
Sex
Women	13·2% (12·6–13·7%)	..	..	27·4% (27·1–27·6%)	..	..
Men	15·5% (14·9–15·9%)	1·17	0·15	32·8% (32·5–33·0%)	1·20	0·057
Age
<55 years	9·8% (9·1–10·4%)	..	..	23·6% (23·3–23·9%)	..	..
55–74 years	12·1% (11·5–12·6%)	1·23	..	27·7% (27·4–27·9%)	1·17	..
≥75 years	21·0% (20·3–21·6%)	2·14	<0·0001	38·9% (38·5–39·2%)	1·64	0·0007
Entry WHO score
1–3	10·8% (10·3–11·4%)	..	..	35·0% (34·7–35·3%)	..	..
4–5	17·7% (17·2–18·2%)	1·64	0·0002	25·1% (24·9–25·3%)	0·72	0·0019
Obesity
Absent	14·6% (14·3–15·0%)	..	..	30·0% (29·9–30·2%)	..	..
Present	13·9% (13·2–14·5%)	0·95	0·84	30·5% (29·7–30·4%)	1·02	0·99
Comorbidities
Absent	13·4% (12·8–13·9%)	..	..	26·6% (26·3–26·8%)	..	..
Present	15·1% (14·6–15·7%)	1·13	0·27	33·3% (33·0–33·5%)	1·25	0·029
COV50 score
Less than threshold	6·2% (5·8–6·6%)	..	..	14·4% (14·2–14·7%)	..	..
Threshold or more	22·3% (21·7–23·0%)	3·60	<0·0001	42·7% (42·4–42·9%)	2·97	<0·0001

974 was the number of patients when patients with an entry WHO score of 6 were excluded. Data presented as probability, % (95% CI). The probabilities of reaching an endpoint were derived from logistic models, in which all risk factors were categorised and mutually adjusted. For each risk factor, the lowest risk category was the reference in computing the times difference with higher categories. Obesity was a BMI of at least 30 kg/m². The COV50 threshold was 0·47 for mortality and 0·04 for worsening WHO score. For both endpoints, the number of events and patients at risk are given. The significance of each risk factor was derived from the multivariable logistic models.