Table.
Years to 0·25 580Y frequency under 40% treatment coverage, 5% malaria prevalence, and different starting frequencies of partner-drug resistance
| Years till 0·25 580Y frequency (PD0) |
Reduction in establishment time (or artemisinin UTL) when comparing with PD0 scenario |
Years lost per log10 increase in starting partner-drug frequency | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PD0·01 | PD0·10 | PD0·25 | PD0·50 | |||
| MORU model | ||||||
| DHA-PPQ | 25·6 (21·4 to 32·2) | 20·6% (13·7 to 27·0) | 47·3% (41·6 to 53·0) | 55·3% (49·7 to 60·7) | 60·6% (54·8 to 66·2) | 6·4 |
| ASAQ | 41·7 (30·5 to 53·3) | 21·8% (12·3 to 32·5) | 54·6% (46·9 to 62·4) | 63·9% (56·2 to 71·5) | 69·9% (62·3 to 77·3) | 12·1 |
| AL | 27·2 (22·4 to 34·4) | 19·1% (12·0 to 26·3) | 38·4% (32·4 to 44·6) | 48·4% (42·2 to 53·7) | 54·9% (49·3 to 60·7) | 5·9 |
| PSU model | ||||||
| DHA-PPQ | 13·9 (11·7 to 16·1) | −1·3% (−8·4 to 5·5) | 12·6% (5·9 to 19·0) | 18·3% (12·5 to 24·4) | 26·6% (21·0 to 32·4) | 2·2 |
| ASAQ | 38·8 (31·0 to 44·0) | −0·5% (−7·6 to 6·4) | 15·7% (9·9 to 22·1) | 26·7% (20·6 to 33·2) | 30·3% (24·8 to 36·4) | 7·0 |
| AL | 24·5 (21·4 to 30·8) | 0·0% (−6·9 to 6·7) | 13·1% (5·9 to 19·6) | 23·5% (17·7 to 29·3) | 32·3% (26·8 to 37·8) | 4·8 |
| ICL model | ||||||
| DHA-PPQ | 27·1 (24·8 to 30·7) | 9·3% (5·3 to 13·2) | 24·3% (20·7 to 27·9) | 30·6% (27·1 to 34·0) | 33·0% (29·3 to 36·7) | 3·9 |
| ASAQ | 38·3 (33·2 to 42·0) | 2·1% (−1·5 to 5·9) | 3·3% (−0·5 to 7·2) | 10·0% (5·9 to 13·7) | 18·4% (14·3 to 22·2) | 3·2 |
| AL | 28·0 (24·1 to 31·7) | 1·1% (−3·7 to 6·1) | 5·5% (0·4 to 10·3) | 13·0% (8·0 to 17·5) | 16·5% (12·2 to 21·0) | 2·5 |
Median years (IQR) are presented for scenarios with no starting partner-drug resistance (PD0) before showing the mean percentage difference in years to 0·25 580Y frequency for each frequency of starting partner-drug resistance explored. Censored times above 40 years were inferred using a Weibull distribution to describe time-to-event values (results for other prevalence levels are shown in the appendix [pp 49–51]). AL=artemether–lumefantrine. ASAQ=artesunate–amodiaquine. DHA-PPQ=dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine. ICL=Imperial College London. MORU=Mahidol-Oxford Research Unit. PSU=Pennsylvania State University. UTL=useful therapeutic life.