Table 1.
Parameters related to the transition probability, effectiveness, costs, and discount rate
| Parameter | Subgroup | Unit | Basic value | Range (lowest − highest) | Type of range | Distribution | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI, mild cognitive impairment; CI, confidence interval; QALY, quality-adjusted life year | ||||||||
| Transition probabilities and effectiveness | ||||||||
| Transition probability from state of well to dementia | 65−69 years old | %/year | 2.18 | 1.44 | 14.91 | 95%CI | Triangular | Ninomiya (2015)18) |
| 70−74 years old | %/year | 4.84 | 95%CI | Triangular | Ninomiya (2015)18) | |||
| 75− years old | %/year | 10.75 | 95%CI | Triangular | Ninomiya (2015)18) | |||
| Transition probability from MCI to dementia | %/year | 3.93 | 1.14 | 5.90 | 95%CI | Triangular | Shimada (2017)7) | |
| Probability of severity in dementia | Mild | % | 38.50 | 30.80 | 46.20 | ±20% | Dirichlet | Asada (2013)19) |
| Moderate | % | 24.10 | 19.28 | 28.92 | ±20% | Dirichlet | Asada (2013)19) | |
| Severe | % | 37.40 | 29.92 | 44.88 | ±20% | Dirichlet | Asada (2013)19) | |
| Transition probability from MCI to well | %/year | 10.98 | 5.69 | 19.02 | 95%CI | Triangular | Shimada (2017)7) | |
| Transition probability from well to MCI | %/year | 13/15 times of transition probability from state of well to dementia | 95%CI | Triangular | Ninomiya (2015)18) Asada (2013)19) |
|||
| Relative risk for death in the state of dementia | %/year | 2.80 | 1.85 | 4.24 | 95%CI | Triangular | July (2021)20) | |
| Effect of combined physical and cognitive exercises to prevent the progression of MCI | All age | rate/year | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.76 | 95 % CI | Triangular | Blondell (2014)21) |
| Effect of combined physical and cognitive exercises to prevent the progression of dementia | All age | rate/year | 0.86 | 0.76 | 0.97 | 95 % CI | Triangular | Blondell (2014)21) |
| Effectiveness | Well | QALY/year | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 95% CI | Triangular | Estimated by authors |
| MCI | QALY/year | 0.75 | 0.16 | 1.00 | 95% CI | Triangular | Landeiro (2020)22) | |
| Dementia (Mild) | QALY/year | 0.61 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 95% CI | Triangular | Landeiro (2020)22) | |
| Dementia (Moderate) | QALY/year | 0.41 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 95% CI | Triangular | Landeiro (2020)22) | |
| Dementia (Severe) | QALY/year | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 95% CI | Triangular | Landeiro (2020)22) | |
| Dead | QALY/year | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 95% CI | Triangular | Estimated by authors | |
| Costs related to the program | ||||||||
| Cost for screening | Well MCI | yen/year | 6,000 | 4,800 | 7,200 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Expert opinion by Shimada (2017)7) |
| Number of individuals in a session | Well MCI | n/session | 15 | 12 | 18 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Expert opinion by Shimada (2017)7) |
| Number of physical therapists for a session | Well MCI | n/session | 2 | 1 | 3 | Estimated | Triangular | Shimada (2017)7) |
| Number of instructors for a session | Well MCI | n/session | 5 | 4 | 6 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Expert opinion by Shimada (2017)7) |
| Cost for a physical therapist for a session | Well MCI | yen/session | 8,396 | 6,716 | 10,075 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Ministory of Health, Labour and Welfare (2020)23) |
| Cost for a instructors for a session | Well MCI | yen/ session | 3,000 | 2,400 | 3,600 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Expert opinion by Shimada (2017)7) |
| Numbers of sessions held in a year | Well MCI (First year) | sessions/year | 40 | 32 | 48 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Shimada (2017)7) |
| Well MCI (From 2nd year) | sessions/year | 2 | 2 | 2.4 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Estimated by authors | |
| Cost for a public space to conduct the session | Well MCI | yen/ session | 900 | 720 | 1,080 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Obu city (2021)24) |
| Cost for maintaining the program | Well MCI | yen/year | 6,000 | 4,800 | 7,200 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Expert opinion by Shimada (2017)7) |
| Costs for medical and long-term care | ||||||||
| Cost for day service for dementia | Dementia (Mild/Moderate) | yen/year | 1,530,000 | 1,224,000 | 1,836,000 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Ministory of Health, Labour and Welfare (2019)25) |
| Cost for preventive day service for dementia | Dementia (Mild) | yen/year | 614,400 | 491,520 | 737,280 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Ministory of Health, Labour and Welfare (2019)25) |
| Cost for preventive short stay for dementia | Dementia (Mild) | yen/year | 471,600 | 377,280 | 565,920 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Ministory of Health, Labour and Welfare (2019)25) |
| Cost for short stay use for dementia | Dementia (Mild/Moderate) | yen/year | 1,315,200 | 1,052,160 | 1,578,240 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Ministory of Health, Labour and Welfare (2019)25) |
| Cost for stay in community-based facility | Dementia (Severe) | yen/year | 3,448,800 | 2,759,040 | 4,138,560 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Ministory of Health, Labour and Welfare (2019)25) |
| Cost for medical treatment for dementia | Dementia (Mild) | yen/year | 527,344 | 421,875.2 | 632,812.8 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Tomata (2014)26) |
| Dementia (Moderate) | yen/year | 841,974 | 673,579.2 | 1,010,368.8 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Ministory of Health, Labour and Welfare (2019)25) | |
| Dementia (Severe) | yen/year | 1,035,384 | 828,307.2 | 1,242,460.8 | ± 20 % | Triangular | Ministory of Health, Labour and Welfare (2019)25) | |
| Discount rate | %/year | 2.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | estimated | Triangular | Shiroiwa (2017)17) | |