Table 3.
Results of one-sensitivity analysis
| Parameters | Unit of parameters | Low value of parameters | High value of parameters | Incremental cost, yen (Low value) | Incremental cost, yen (High value) | Incremental effectiveness, QALY (Low value) | Incremental effectiveness, QALY (High value) | Direction of impact on INMB | INMB, yen (Low value) | INMB, yen (High value) | Spread | Size of impact | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTs, physical therapists; MCI, mild cognitive impairment; QALY, quality-adjusted life years; INMB, incremental net monetary benefit | |||||||||||||
| Transition probability from well to dementia | %/year | 1.44 | 14.91 | −1,857,147 | −15,097,902 | 0.33 | 2.53 | Improved | 3,508,401 | 27,725,220 | 24,216,819 | 97.44% | 1 |
| Transition probability from well to MCI | %/year | 1.25 | 9.32 | −2,850,307 | −2,480,181 | 0.53 | 0.12 | Worsened | 5,482,745 | 3,070,710 | 2,412,034 | 0.97% | 2 |
| Utility of mild severity of dementia | QALY/year | 0.00 | 1.00 | −2,818,833 | −2,818,833 | 0.68 | 0.37 | Worsened | 6,204,850 | 4,681,985 | 1,522,865 | 0.39% | 3 |
| Utility of severe severity of dementia | QALY/year | 0.00 | 0.74 | −2,818,833 | −2,818,833 | 0.56 | 0.31 | Worsened | 5,633,536 | 4,375,007 | 1,258,529 | 0.26% | 4 |
| Discount rate | %/year | 0.00 | 4.00 | −3,169,289 | −2,518,118 | 0.55 | 0.44 | Worsened | 5,936,051 | 4,710,194 | 1,225,857 | 0.25% | 5 |
| Probability to be severe level of dementia | % | 29.92 | 44.88 | −3,086,784 | −2,548,013 | 0.44 | 0.54 | Improved | 4,737,488 | 5,808,704 | 1,071,216 | 0.19% | 6 |
| Utility of moderate severity of dementia | QALY/year | 0.00 | 1.00 | −2,818,833 | −2,818,833 | 0.57 | 0.37 | Worsened | 5,682,240 | 4,691,174 | 991,066 | 0.16% | 7 |
| Utility of MCI | QALY/year | 0.16 | 1.00 | −2,818,833 | −2,818,833 | 0.39 | 0.57 | Improved | 4,786,017 | 5,649,672 | 863,655 | 0.12% | 8 |
| Probability to be mild level of dementia | % | 30.80 | 46.20 | −2,954,314 | −2,681,953 | 0.46 | 0.52 | Improved | 4,988,577 | 5,560,434 | 571,857 | 0.05% | 9 |
| Probability to be middle level of dementia | % | 19.28 | 28.92 | −2,676,455 | −2,960,412 | 0.46 | 0.52 | Improved | 5,001,310 | 5,549,048 | 547,738 | 0.05% | 10 |
| Cost for stay in community-based facility for dementia | yen/year | 2,759,040 | 4,138,560 | −2,583,898 | −3,053,767 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Improved | 5,040,968 | 5,510,837 | 469,869 | 0.04% | 11 |
| Transition probability from well to die | %/year | 0.73 | 1.92 | −2,917,401 | −2,538,425 | 0.49 | 0.48 | Worsened | 5,375,925 | 4,931,448 | 444,477 | 0.03% | 12 |
| Transition probability of reversing from MCI to well | %/year | 20.90 | 57.00 | −2,793,731 | −2,838,896 | 0.46 | 0.52 | Improved | 5,083,098 | 5,416,020 | 332,922 | 0.02% | 13 |
| Effect of combined physical and cognitive exercises to prevent the progression of MCI | rate/year | 0.55 | 0.76 | −2,833,451 | −2,803,828 | 0.51 | 0.47 | Worsened | 5,371,929 | 5,177,414 | 194,515 | 0.01% | 14 |
| Transition probability from MCI to dementia | %/year | 1.14 | 5.90 | −2,885,101 | −2,773,405 | 0.50 | 0.49 | Worsened | 5,386,981 | 5,199,350 | 187,631 | 0.01% | 15 |
| Cost for day service for dementia | yen/year | 1,224,000 | 1,836,000 | −2,727,113 | −2,910,552 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Improved | 5,184,183 | 5,367,622 | 183,439 | 0.01% | 16 |
| Cost for short stay use for dementia | yen/year | 1,052,160 | 1,578,240 | −2,739,990 | −2,897,675 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Improved | 5,197,060 | 5,354,746 | 157,686 | 0.00% | 17 |
| Cost for preventive day service for dementia | yen/year | 491,520 | 737,280 | −2,793,882 | −2,843,783 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Improved | 5,250,952 | 5,300,853 | 49,901 | 0.00% | 18 |
| Cost for preventive short stay use for dementia | yen/year | 377,280 | 565,920 | −2,799,681 | −2,837,984 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Improved | 5,256,751 | 5,295,054 | 38,303 | 0.00% | 19 |
| Effect of combined physical and cognitive exercises to prevent the development of dementia | rate/year | 0.76 | 0.97 | −2,829,313 | −2,807,434 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Worsened | 5,293,468 | 5,256,792 | 36,675 | 0.00% | 20 |
| Cost for screening for cognitive impairment | yen | 4,800 | 7,200 | −2,829,254 | −2,808,411 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Worsened | 5,286,324 | 5,265,481 | 20,842 | 0.00% | 21 |
| Cost for maintaining the program | yen/year | 4,800 | 7,200 | −2,828,077 | −2,809,588 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Worsened | 5,285,147 | 5,266,658 | 18,489 | 0.00% | 22 |
| Number of individuals in a session | n/ session | 12 | 18 | −2,814,810 | −2,821,231 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Improved | 5,271,880 | 5,278,301 | 6,421 | 0.00% | 23 |
| Number of physical therapists (PTs) for a session | n/ session | 1 | 3 | −2,820,871 | −2,816,794 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Worsened | 5,277,941 | 5,273,864 | 4,076 | 0.00% | 24 |
| Cost of a physical therapist for a session | yen/ session | 6,716 | 10,075 | −2,819,648 | −2,818,017 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Worsened | 5,276,718 | 5,275,087 | 1,631 | 0.00% | 25 |
| Cost for a public space to conduct the session | yen/ session | 720 | 1,080 | −2,819,488 | −2,818,177 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Worsened | 5,276,558 | 5,275,247 | 1,311 | 0.00% | 26 |
| Cost for instructors for a session | yen/ session | 2,400 | 3,600 | −2,818,833 | −2,818,833 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Improved | 5,275,903 | 5,275,903 | 0 | 0.00% | 27 |
| Number of instructors for a session | instructors/session | 4 | 6 | −2,818,833 | −2,818,833 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Improved | 5,275,903 | 5,275,903 | 0 | 0.00% | 28 |
| Numbers of sessions held in a year | sessions/year | 32 | 48 | −2,818,833 | −2,818,833 | 0.49 | 0.49 | Improved | 5,275,903 | 5,275,903 | 0 | 0.00% | 29 |