Table 4.
Breakdown of distribution of size and magnitude of elicited unpublished studies of near-optimal RD <1 cm versus complete cytoreduction (0 cm)
| n=321 (n=17.8) | Estimated effect size | ||||||
| Assumed 5-year survival: 36% | HR=1 | HR=0.9 | HR=0.8 | HR=0.7 | HR=0.6 | HR≤0.5 | |
| RD <1 cm and 0 cm are the same | 10% less chance of mortality favouring RD <1 cm | 20% less chance of mortality favouring RD <1 cm | 30% less chance of mortality favouring RD <1 cm | 40% less chance of mortality favouring RD <1 cm | ≥50% less chance of mortality favouring RD <1 cm | ||
| Size of studies missed that could have been included in the analysis | Sample size | ||||||
| n<100 | Study excluded | ||||||
| n=100 | 122.08* | 19.12 | 22.7 | 1.34 | 2.14 | 1.14 | |
| n=200 | 25.08 | 11.12 | 12.62 | 4.38 | 2.18 | 2.18 | |
| n=300 | 6.04 | 4.04 | 1.04 | 2.04 | 0 | 0 | |
| n=400 | 10.37 | 9.37 | 9.37 | 9.37 | 9.37 | 9.37 | |
| n=500 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 3.04 | 1.04 | 0 | 0 | |
| n>500 | 5.08 | 4.04 | 4.04 | 3.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 | |
| Total studies† (mean) | 169.7 (9.4) | 48.7 (2.7) | 52.8 (2.9) | 21.2 (1.2) | 14.7 (0.8) | 13.7 (0.8) | |
| Effective n‡ (mean) | 26 879 (1493.3) | 12 141 (674.5) | 12 899 (716.6) | 7790 (432.8) | 5048 (280.4) | 4948 (274.9) | |
| Effective d§ (mean) | 17 203 (956) |
7770 (432) | 8255 (459) |
4986 (277) |
3231 (179) |
3167 (176) |
|
| SElogHR (√(4/d))¶ | 0.065 | 0.096 | 0.093 | 0.120 | 0.149 | 0.151 | |
| 95% CI for HR** | 0.88–1.14 | 0.75–1.09 | 0.67–0.96 | 0.55–0.89 | 0.45–0.80 | 0.37–0.67 | |
| Elicited estimate†† | HR 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.90), logHR −0.19 SElogHR 0.04 (n=3906, d=2500) | ||||||
*Number of studies given in the breakdown were rescaled in three respondents to correspond to the total number estimated. Therefore, any non-integer numbers in the table are due to this rescaling.
†Absolute number of estimated missing studies elicited from responders with mean (simply absolute number divided by 18 (number of responders)) given in parentheses.
‡Absolute number of estimated missing participants elicited based on total studies with mean given in parentheses.
§Absolute number of deaths estimated from number of participants assuming 5-year survival rate of 36% with mean in ().
¶Approximation of the SE of the log HR using formula derived by Parmar,46 namely the square root of 4 divided by mean number of deaths.
**95% CI for HR calculated using logHR±1.96 multiplied by SE of log HR then transforming back by taking the exponential.
††Elicited HR with 95% CI using mean responses for all aggregated effect sizes.
RD, residual disease.