Table 1.

Results from event study regressions

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
Credit-to-GDP gap (change from t−3 to t−1)	0.07***	0.14**	0.10**	0.07***	0.08	0.05**	0.10**	0.08***
	(0.02)	(0.06)	(0.05)	(0.02)	(0.10)	(0.02)	(0.05)	(0.02)
Dummy: Civil conflict	1.67**	1.79**	2.04***	0.79	2.34**	1.53**	2.41**	1.82**
	(0.65)	(0.68)	(0.66)	(0.64)	(0.93)	(0.68)	(1.03)	(0.71)
Output growth (t−1)	0.12**	0.13	0.10*	0.13**	0.17**	0.08*	0.10	0.12**
	(0.05)	(0.08)	(0.06)	(0.06)	(0.08)	(0.04)	(0.07)	(0.05)
Dummy: 2008						1.12
						(1.18)
Interact: Dummy 2008* Credit-to-GDP gap						0.37**
						(0.16)
Dummy: 2011						1.46*
						(0.78)
Interact: Dummy 2011* Credit-to-GDP gap						−0.08
						(0.07)
Dummy: 2019	3.87***	2.29**	3.19***	3.88***	4.07***	4.06***	3.15***
	(0.91)	(0.96)	(0.63)	(1.18)	(1.41)	(0.92)	(1.10)
Constant	−0.45	1.17***	−0.47	0.15	−1.22**	−0.49*	0.06	−0.50*
	(0.27)	(0.35)	(0.29)	(0.30)	(0.50)	(0.27)	(0.30)	(0.29)
Sample	Full	${\widehat{g}}_i>0$	Credit gap > 0	GRA	PRGT	Full	Post-GFC	Excl. COVID
Observations	218	128	160	89	129	218	105	206
Time period	2000–2019	2000–2019	2000–2019	2000–2019	2000–2019	2000–2019	2010–2019	2000–2018
R2	0.13	0.15	0.17	0.22	0.13	0.17	0.20	0.09
Mean of dep. variable (${\widehat{g}}_i$)	0.70	2.57	0.68	0.82	0.63	0.70	1.32	0.49

White heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors clustered by country are shown in parentheses. The use of *** denotes a coefficient significantly different from zero at the 0.01 confidence level; **0.05; *0.10