Table 2.
Results controlling for aspects of program design
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Credit-to-GDP gap (change from t−3 to t−1) |
0.15** | 0.16** | 0.08** | 0.07*** | 0.14*** |
| (0.07) | (0.08) | (0.04) | (0.03) | (0.05) | |
| Dummy: Civil conflict | 2.05** | 2.02** | 1.80* | 1.67** | 1.82*** |
| (0.80) | (0.81) | (0.98) | (0.66) | (0.67) | |
|
Output growth (t−1) |
0.21*** | 0.21*** | 0.13 | 0.11** | 0.08 |
| (0.08) | (0.08) | (0.09) | (0.06) | (0.05) | |
| Dummy: 2019 | 3.38*** | 3.49*** | 2.52*** | 3.86*** | 3.98*** |
| (1.11) | (0.96) | (0.69) | (0.91) | (0.84) | |
|
Expected real growth of base money (t−1 to t+1) |
−0.02 | ||||
| (0.04) | |||||
|
Expected change in money multiplier (t−1 to t+1) |
0.18 | ||||
| (0.88) | |||||
|
Expected fiscal adjustment (t−1 to t+1) |
0.17 | ||||
| (0.14) | |||||
|
Loan amount (Access/GDP) |
−0.03 | ||||
| (0.16) | |||||
|
Debt outstanding to IMF (t; Debt/GDP) |
−0.29*** | ||||
| (0.09) | |||||
|
Interact: Debt outstanding * Credit-to-GDP gap |
−0.01*** | ||||
| (0.00) | |||||
| Constant | −0.63 | −0.70* | −0.78* | −0.33 | 0.23 |
| (0.43) | (0.42) | (0.43) | (0.60) | (0.36) | |
| Observations | 91 | 92 | 136 | 218 | 216 |
| R2 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| Time period | 2002–2019 | 2002–2019 | 2000–2019 | 2000–2019 | 2000–2019 |
| Sample | Full | Full | Full | Full | Full |
White heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors clustered by country are shown in parentheses. The use of *** denotes a coefficient significantly different from zero at the 0.01 confidence level; **0.05; *0.10