Table 3.
Hypothetical cases and model derived probabilities of death or mod/severe CP based on clinical information that would be available at hospital discharge
| Case scenarios | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gestational age at birth (wk) | 25 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 30 |
| MgSO4 treatment group | Y | N | N | N | Y | Y |
| IVH Grade III/IV | N | N | Y | Y | N | N |
| PVL | N | Y | N | Y | Y | N |
| Male | N | Y | Y | N | Y | Y |
| Neonatal hypotension | N | N | Y | N | N | N |
| Probability of death or moderate/severe CP* | 4 [2,7] | 82 [65, 92] | 34 [17, 56] | 84 [63, 94] | 49 [28, 70] | 2 [1,3] |
| Probability of moderate/severe CP* | 1 [0.3, 3] | 77 [53, 91] | 32 [14, 58] | 81 [51, 94] | 35 [16, 60] | 0.5 [0.2,1] |
*
In percent [95% confidence interval]
Probability of death or moderate/severe CP (the values to enter into the formula for categorical markers are 0 for absence and 1 for presence) = 1−{1/(1+exp(4.4730 + [−0.3665 × MgSO4 treatment group] + [−0.2968 × gestational age at birth] + [1.6660 × IVH Grade 3–4] + [3.8380 × PVL] + [0.9182 × male]))}.
Probability of moderate/severe CP =1−{1/(1+exp(3.5226 + [−0.5992 × MgSO4 treatment group] + [−0.3020 × gestational age at birth] + [1.6069 × IVH Grade 3–4] + [4.7433 × PVL] + [0.7797 × male] + [1.1885 × neonatal hypotension]))}.