TABLE 4.
Changes in risk factors and risk indices over the eras
| All era n = 449 | Era1 n = 85 | Era2 n = 185 | Era3 n = 179 |
Era3 vs Era1 P value |
Era3 vs Era2 P value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recipient factor | ||||||
| Re‐transplantation | 76 (16.9) | 13 (15.3) | 37 (20.0) | 26 (14.5) | 0.87 | 0.17 |
| Medical condition: in ICU | 126 (28.1) | 15 (17.6) | 61 (33.2) | 50 (27.9) | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| MELD score ≥30 | 85 (19.0) | 10 (11.9) | 32 (17.3) | 43 (24.0) | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Donor factor | ||||||
| Age ≥60 years | 65 (14.5) | 7 (8.2) | 34 (18.4) | 24 (13.4) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| Catecholamine index ≥10 | 93 (20.9) | 29 (35.4) | 35 (18.9) | 29 (16.2) | 0.001 | 0.50 |
| Sodium, maximum ≥180 mEq/L | 12 (2.7) | 0 (0.0) | 6 (3.2) | 6 (3.4) | 0.19 | 0.73 |
| Total bilirubin, maximum ≥3 mg/dL | 54 (12.0) | 7 (8.2) | 28 (15.1) | 19 (10.6) | 0.54 | 0.20 |
| Surgical factor | ||||||
| Total ischemic time ≥11 h | 96 (21.4) | 26 (30.6) | 42 (22.7) | 28 (15.6) | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| The proposed risk indices | ||||||
| JRI (without era) a | 2.48 ± 3.84 | 2.36 ± 1.90 | 3.01 ± 5.70 | 1.98 ± 1.18 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| JRI (without era) ≥6 | 20 (3.3) | 3 (3.5) | 13 (7.0) | 4 (2.2) | 0.54 | 0.03 |
| JRI‐R b | 1.37 ± 0.54 | 1.27 ± 0.48 | 1.43 ± 0.56 | 1.37 ± 0.68 | 0.11 | 0.35 |
| JRI‐D c | 1.17 ± 0.48 | 1.18 ± 0.29 | 1.21 ± 0.68 | 1.11 ± 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| JRI‐S d | 1.28 ± 0.68 | 1.52 ± 0.80 | 1.38 ± 0.72 | 1.25 ± 0.59 | 0.007 | 0.06 |
Data were presented as mean values ± standard deviations and numbers (%) for continuous and categorical variables, respectively. Bold emphasis indicates statistical significance (P <0.05).
Abbreviations: ICU, intensive care unit; JRI, Japan Risk index; JRI‐D, JRI for donor; JRI‐R, JRI for recipient; JRI‐S, JRI for surgery; MELD, Model for End‐stage Liver Disease.
JRI (without era) = (JRI for recipient [JRI‐R]) × (JRI for donor [JRI‐D]) × (JRI for surgery [JRI‐S]).
JRI‐R = exp ([0.545 if re‐transplantation] + [0.291 if MELD30‒39] + [0.473 if MELD ≥40] + [0.383 if recipient ICU]).
JRI‐D = exp ([0.390 if donor age 60‒69] + [0.869 if donor age ≥70] + [0.262 if catecholamine index 10.0‒29.9] + [0.642 if catecholamine index ≥30.0] + [0.518 if donor maximum sodium ≥180 mEq/L] + [0.079 if donor maximum total bilirubin 3.0‒4.9 mg/dL] + [0.544 if donor maximum total bilirubin ≥5.0 mg/dL]).
JRI‐S = exp ([0.923 if total ischemic time 11.0‒12.9 h] + [1.152 if total ischemic time ≥13.0 h]).